Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The big unknown at this point in the negotiations is how much Iran is willing to concede in its enrichment program in order to get sanctions relief. While Iran wishes to remove all sanctions immediately, the United States and its allies would like to see the sanctions removed gradually.
Failed talks on Iran’s nuclear program could lead to a managed irresolution, where the two sides fail to meet in the same place but also recognize that it is in the best interests of both parties to have the talks keep going.
If a nuclear deal with Iran is not reached within the next six months, Congress is intent on passing new sanctions.
Rapprochement with Iran or, at the minimum, a nuclear deal with Iran would be a significant part of Obama’s foreign policy legacy. The big question is whether Iran’s leadership is interested in that rapprochement.
A big challenge for the Iranian nuclear negotiations is finding a technical resolution to what is really a political conflict.
With respect to Iran, the United States has three basic choices: a war option, a deal option, and a “muddling through” option.
There is renewed interested in conventionally armed hypersonic weapons in both the United States and in China.
Both the United States and Iran have a major interest in curtailing the rise of radical Sunni groups like ISIS.
The United States has accused Russia of violating a 1987 missile treaty.
There was a fundamental mismatch of expectations between the United States and Iran over what a comprehensive deal would entail when the interim nuclear deal was reached in November 2013.