Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The IAEA announcement that Iran may be working towards a nuclear warhead plays into growing international concerns that Iran is becoming a military dictatorship, with the influence of the Revolutionary Guards eclipsing that of the clergy.
The Obama administration must carefully balance its attempts to engage Iran on its nuclear program, Iraq, and Afghanistan with its need to support the Iranian opposition.
Over the past decade, the political and economic influence of the Revolutionary Guard has eclipsed that of the clergy. The Obama administration’s call for new, targeted sanctions would target the Revolutionary Guard without undermining Iran’s opposition movement.
The 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic will provide another opportunity for demonstrations by the Iranian opposition movement, which must overcome not only the violent repression of the regime, but also divisions within its own ranks, if it is to achieve significant change in Iran.
As the Iranian regime continues to crackdown on the opposition movement, the Obama administration must consider how to deal with the looming Iranian nuclear threat without turning its back on the Iranian opposition.
As thousands of Iranians continue to take to the streets in protest, President Obama is presented with an opportunity to help support transformational democratic change within Iran.
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration’s efforts at engagement with Iran will affect the domestic situation, as tensions grow between the opposition leadership’s calls for reform and the movement’s younger members, who are looking for a more fundamental change.
A year of attempts by U.S. officials to engage with Iran has not yet yielded any change in Iran’s nuclear position, but it has succeeded in demonstrating to both the Iranian people and the international community that the problem lies in Tehran, not in Washington.
President Ahmadinejad’s announcement that Iran intends to build ten new uranium enrichment plants further complicates the international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Given the deep economic and cultural ties between Iran and Dubai, the recent economic troubles in the Emirate will certainly have an impact on Iran and may even play a role in the international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.