Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
If successful, the Tunisian elections could provide a model for other countries in the region that are experiencing political transitions.
Despite King Abdullah's initiative to allow women to vote and run for office in the 2015 municipal elections, many Saudis still feel change will continue to be slow to come to Saudi Arabia.
Yemen continues to face political uncertainty and escalating violence, and it remains unclear who is in charge and what steps need to be taken to achieve a stable transition of power.
Important first steps toward political transformation are occurring throughout the Arab world, as evidenced by the trial of deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the amendments proposed for the Jordanian constitution.
The Arab Spring has changed the political dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, but many challenges remain to be addressed. The full effect of the popular demonstrations across the region will be measured in decades, not months or years.
The Arab Spring has more in common with events in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s than Central and Eastern Europe in 1989. The impact of events in the Middle East for states outside the region will depend on the legitimacy and adaptability of their regimes.
The Arab Spring is likely to have little to no impact on the political situation in the countries of Central Asia and may even serve the governments there as a cautionary warning to their citizens against social upheaval and turmoil.
While Azerbaijan is unlikely to ever recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh or sign a treaty with Armenia concerning the contested territory, it is also unlikely that a war will break out over the territory’s status.
The protests by several Saudi Arabian women against the ban on female drivers could help usher in a number of social reforms in the kingdom.
Russia plays an extremely important role as mediator in the current Libyan conflict. If Moscow can succeed in this role, there would be a clear positive benefit to Libya and its neighbors.