Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In a negotiated settlement to the political crisis and power struggle occurring in Yemen, the youth protesters who first took to the streets are likely to be cut out of any final deal, which will be made by the political elites.
As international attention remains focused on the protests calling for the removal of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the country’s manifold economic problems threaten Yemen and the region.
While the political crisis in Yemen is important, the failure of the country's economy could be catastrophic, with potentially serious consequences on a regional and global scale.
The Arab Spring is causing tension in the close relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. There is a growing sense in Riyadh that Saudi and U.S. national security interests may be increasingly divergent.
Rather than continuing with the reform rhetoric heard in many Arab countries, rulers who wish to remain in power must engage in serious, measurable, and inclusive efforts at real reform.
A fundamental transformation has occurred in the Middle East and North Africa, in spite of the violent repression that has confronted protesters in Libya, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen.
Islamist parties in Egypt and Tunisia are emerging as powerful political players in each country’s transition. Upcoming elections in both countries and the performance of Islamist parties once they are in office will determine their future role in formal politics.
The prosecution of deposed President Hosni Mubarak demonstrates how Egypt is caught between a revolution, with protesters determined to tear down the old regime, and a political transition based around elections.
The United States must engage in a careful balancing act to maintain both its expressed commitment to Arab democracy and its commitment to its relationship with Israel.
While President Obama’s speech on the Middle East expressed support for the dramatic changes going on in the region and compared those changes with the U.S. experience of nonviolent civil disobedience, it did not set out any bold policy shifts.