Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The future of Afghanistan depends on the willingness of the U.S. and Afghan governments to incorporate constituencies besides the Taliban in peace negotiations.
Turkey is attempting to position itself as a more than a regional power, with activity in all its neighboring regions. It remains to be seen, however, whether Turkey has enough forces to be present in so many places.
The Arab Spring is likely to have little to no impact on the political situation in the countries of Central Asia and may even serve the governments there as a cautionary warning to their citizens against social upheaval and turmoil.
While Azerbaijan is unlikely to ever recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh or sign a treaty with Armenia concerning the contested territory, it is also unlikely that a war will break out over the territory’s status.
Russia plays an extremely important role as mediator in the current Libyan conflict. If Moscow can succeed in this role, there would be a clear positive benefit to Libya and its neighbors.
Public hostility toward the Kyrgyz government escalated over the past weeks, leading to the recent street protests and demonstrations that seem to have topped the government of President Bakiyev.
In the wake of Kyrgyzstan’s decision to close its American airbase the U.S. must find a Central Asian location for its logistical operations outside of Afghanistan to ensure they remain uninterrupted in case the war deteriorates further.