Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While Putin may have a guaranteed victory in the upcoming presidential election, it is increasingly clear that Russia’s once-passive electorate is willing to show its discontent, making it potentially more difficult to promote necessary economic reforms.
The recent parliamentary elections saw the ruling United Russia party fare worse than expected, as Russian citizens expressed their frustration with perceived lawlessness and corruption in the country’s political system.
Bolstered by the high price of oil, Moscow is likely to take the opportunity to contribute to Europe’s rescue fund in return for more influence on the International Monetary Fund.
The Arab Spring is likely to have little to no impact on the political situation in the countries of Central Asia and may even serve the governments there as a cautionary warning to their citizens against social upheaval and turmoil.
While Azerbaijan is unlikely to ever recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh or sign a treaty with Armenia concerning the contested territory, it is also unlikely that a war will break out over the territory’s status.
Russia plays an extremely important role as mediator in the current Libyan conflict. If Moscow can succeed in this role, there would be a clear positive benefit to Libya and its neighbors.
The new conviction of Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky is a potent demonstration of the regime’s lack of commitment to the modernization of the Russian political and judicial system.
A recent law expanding the power of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s secret service, has provoked concern among human rights organizations and political activists.
The attack at the Baksan hydropower station may be a sign that the militants in the Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria are switching to guerilla warfare and that the authorities must rethink their strategy for how to deal with the North Caucasus.
The recent terrorist attack in Stavropol suggests that if Russia is still facing an increasing number of terrorist attacks, then perhaps it is time for the authorities to rethink their policies for the pacification of the Caucasus.