Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Growing instability in Iraq, coupled with the ongoing violence in Syria, could cause serious trouble for regional U.S. allies and even foreshadow a significant shift in the region.
Restoring the kind of stability that would allow the Egyptian government to make clear economic decisions is going to require not just a government in control, but also a government that has a lot more consensus.
A Russia-brokered deal, which seeks to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons, provides the Obama administration with breathing room but fails to solve the fundamental issues driving the Syrian conflict.
The real question facing Egypt has to do with the role of Islam in public life and who speaks for Islam in public life, which is ultimately more of a political conflict than a religious one.
Members of Congress have begun to call for cuts in the $1.5 billion in military aid given to Egypt each year, as political violence increases in the country.
With the political process in Egypt taking a violent turn, negotiations between the Brotherhood and the new regime are weakening.
Egypt’s new rulers have to make a decision on whether they want an open democratic system. They can either have the Muslim Brotherhood on board or chose to crush them, and thus far they have been sending signals in both directions.
The most immediate concern for Egypt’s liberals and the U.S. government is the possibility of the Muslim Brotherhood abandoning politics and resorting to street violence if they are not reassured that their voices will be heard.
The U.S. government should refrain from doing anything that would suggest interference in Egypt’s internal developments and instead support a peaceful resolution by domestic civilian actors.
Tension has increased between supporters and opponents of President Morsi, with both threatening to stage mass protests on the one year anniversary of the president taking office.