Ibrahim Jalal is a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. His research explores third-party-led peace processes; maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; the proliferation of non-state actors and its implications on the implementation of peace agreements, post-war security orders, and stabilization efforts; the politics of social assistance in fragile and conflict-affected states; violent extremism; the foreign and defense policies of the Gulf and Western states in Yemen; and the evolving regional security architecture in the Middle East and North Africa. He has worked with the United Nations, the Middle East Institute, the Yemen Policy Center, the Overseas Development Institute, and Sussex University’s Institute of Development Studies.
Competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over influence in the Yemeni governorate could lead to conflict between the two sides or their proxies, which risks provoking dangerous fragmentation.
Fueled by the nation's internal divisions, the development of parallel informal war economies, and the growing power of local actors supported by external forces, the rise of armed groups in Yemen continues.
For the foreseeable future, maritime trade through the Red Sea will remain a hostage to Ansar Allah and Iran. They will likely use this to secure concessions elsewhere.
Through a campaign of arrests, the Houthis are moving forward in introducing a program of “radical change” in the country.
The Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center is organizing a webinar to discuss the latest dynamics at play beyond Yemen and their broader domestic and regional implications.
The best way for Washington to address Ansar Allah’s hindrance of seaborne traffic is to tie maritime security in the region to the Yemeni peace process.