Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, the strike on Dnipro using the experimental Oreshnik missile, and the possibility of new strategic arms agreements between Russia and the US.
Russia’s nuclear shield insures it against NATO’s large-scale involvement in the war in Ukraine, but below that threshold, the West is doing more and more to support its Ukrainian allies, leaving the Kremlin facing the difficult question of how to restore the effectiveness of its deterrent.
Many in Moscow believe that the system of arms control created during the Cold War was advantageous to the West—and they want that to change.
Despite all the hype, Russia’s nuclear modernization program is suffering from significant delays. The replacement of Soviet-era systems will take years because of production issues, poor management, and financial problems.
Russia doesn’t stand to gain anything from de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, but friends and foes alike will reap the benefits of its decision.
The recent public discussion in Russia on using nuclear weapons against the West was really a discussion about how Moscow can extricate itself from the difficult situation in which it finds itself—and what price it is willing to pay for a victory.
By imagining an attack or even an invasion, Lukashenko is increasing the risks of war coming to Belarus.
