Commentary
A sizeable funding shortfall looks increasingly likely to hit Ukraine in 2027. Can the Europeans, with their strained budgets and economies, come up with the cash without seizing frozen Russian assets?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
{
"authors": [
"Ulrich Kühn",
"Anna Péczeli"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [
"U.S. Nuclear Policy"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "NPP",
"programs": [
"Nuclear Policy"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"Nuclear Policy",
"Arms Control"
]
}
Source: Getty
Other
Russia, NATO, and the INF Treaty
Since 2014, the United States has publicly accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. In light of reports that Russia has already deployed a significant number of prohibited missiles, the Trump administration will face the tough decision about whether or not to remain committed to the treaty.
Published on Feb 28, 2017
Source: Strategic Studies Quarterly
Since 2014, the United States has publicly accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a landmark Cold War nuclear arms control agreement. The new US president, Donald J. Trump, will face the tough decision about whether or not to remain committed to the treaty. This article recounts the history of the INF treaty and assesses Russian and US interests related to the treaty. It develops three possible future scenarios for Russian actions and their impact on, as well as possible responses by, the United States and its NATO allies. The conclusion is that NATO allies will most likely face an ambiguous Russian stance with respect to INF weapons, which will make it difficult to find a balanced response strategy, bringing together diplomatic and economic pressure as well as military means to respond to Russia’s INF violation.
This article was originally published in Strategic Studies Quarterly.
About the Authors
Ulrich Kühn
Former Nonresident Scholar, Nuclear Policy Program
Ulrich Kühn was a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the head of the arms control and emerging technologies program at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.
Anna Péczeli
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Taking the Pulse: Can Europe Fund Ukraine Without Russian Assets?
- How Realistic Is a U.S.-Brokered Gas Deal Between Russia and the EU?Commentary
A gas deal would create palpable economic value, but it wouldn’t fundamentally change the position of either Russia or the EU.
Sergey Vakulenko
- Will a UN Treaty on Autonomous Weapons Arrive Too Late?Article
The final report by the Group of Governmental Experts is a key milestone toward a potential instrument regulating Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems and has garnered both accolades and criticism.
Charukeshi Bhatt
- No, A Democratic Congress Won’t Save EuropeCommentary
A blue wave has swept over the U.S. midterms, with Democrats regaining control of both houses of Congress. But Europeans hoping for a return to business as usual should think again.
Rym Momtaz
- Escaping an Escalatory Spiral: Can Europe Avoid a War With Russia?Research
Nobody in the Kremlin fancies a fight with the whole European continent. Instead, the Russian leadership would be likely to opt for a short, targeted strike.
Maksim Samorukov
