Western Europe’s dual-use infrastructure melted down during its latest heat wave. If a predicted hot weather event can take the continent by surprise, what chance does it have to withstand unexpected geopolitical crises?
Rym Momtaz
{
"authors": [
"Deborah Gordon",
"Jeffrey Feldman",
"Joule Bergerson",
"Adam Brandt",
"Jonathan Koomey"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "SCP",
"programs": [
"Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics"
],
"projects": [
"Carnegie Oil Initiative"
],
"regions": [
"North America"
],
"topics": [
"Climate Change"
]
}Source: Getty
Oil is one of the world’s most durable global commodities. With few ready commercial substitutes, its extraordinary staying power is demonstrated by its enduring energy sector dominance, even as market prices fluctuate dramatically and geopolitical disruptions strike.
Source: chapter in Encyclopedia of Sustainability Technologies
Oil is one of the world’s most durable global commodities. With few ready commercial substitutes, its extraordinary staying power is demonstrated by its enduring energy sector dominance, even as market prices fluctuate dramatically and geopolitical disruptions strike. In addition to ever present economic and security concerns, climate change is a third factor that must now be fully considered. This puts a premium on the ability to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the oil value chain to see how they vary in upstream production and crude transport, midstream refining, and downstream product transport and end use. To address this knowledge gap, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in collaboration with researchers at Stanford University and the University of Calgary, developed a first-of-its-kind Oil Climate Index (OCI). This open source web tool conducts a “crude-centric” lifecycle assessment of oil from the barrel forward through consumption of all its end products. The OCI demonstrates that total GHG emissions can vary significantly—by as much as nearly a factor of two overall, depending on the oil itself and the operating techniques employed, and a factor of ten in upstream and midstream GHG emissions. Given available data, competing fossil fuel resources can be modeled using the OCI to identify emissions reduction opportunities to successfully manage their GHG emissions.
The variations in GHG emissions between oils are large enough to matter. These differences should prompt innovations in data collection, analysis, risk assessment, and policy design. The “crude-centric” approach can help producers, refiners, oil traders, policymakers, investors, academics, NGOs, and the public focus attention on successfully mitigating total GHG emissions from the oils sector. Accomplishing these goals will require widespread adoption of this new way of “crude-centric” thinking. Future phases of the OCI will continue to probe energy sustainability via innovation, including the forthcoming addition of the GHG assessment of global gas fields to the OCI.
This chapter was originally pulished in the Encyclopedia of Sustainable Technologies.
Former Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and Climate Program
Gordon was director of Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, where her research focuses on oil and climate change issues in North America and globally.
Jeffrey Feldman
Former Junior Fellow, Energy and Climate Program
Joule Bergerson
Joule Bergerson is an assistant professor at the University of Calgary. Her primary research interests are systems-level analysis for policy and decision making of energy system investment and management.
Adam Brandt
Adam Brandt is an assistant professor at Stanford University. He is interested in reducing the environmental impacts of energy systems.
Jonathan Koomey
Jonathan Koomey is a researcher, author, lecturer, and entrepreneur whose work spans climate solutions, critical thinking skills, and the energy and environmental effects of information technology.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
Western Europe’s dual-use infrastructure melted down during its latest heat wave. If a predicted hot weather event can take the continent by surprise, what chance does it have to withstand unexpected geopolitical crises?
Rym Momtaz
Batteries are essential technologies for twenty-first-century growth, security, and energy—and they cut to the core of geopolitical ambitions for high-tech strategic autonomy.
Milo McBride
The groundbreaking legislation faces an uphill battle, but it creates a framework for others to follow—especially as the effects of climate change intensify.
Liliana Gamboa, Kayly Ober
The world’s climate adaptation funds must adapt to address the ways that climate change is deepening state fragility.
Ray Salvatore Jennings, Paul Andrew Mayewski
Europe’s industrial supply chains leave it vulnerable to global shocks. The EU needs a pragmatic green industrial strategy that balances durable partnerships and bolsters homegrown clean tech without sacrificing low-carbon ambition.
Milo McBride, Pauline Gerard