• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Li Bin"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie China"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "U.S.-China Relations"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie China",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "East Asia",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Arms Control"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie China

Will US Nuclear Posture Review see a return to hegemony?

The draft Nuclear Posture Review of the Donald Trump administration presents Washington's intention to use US nuclear weapons as a hegemonic tool again.

Link Copied
By Li Bin
Published on Jan 26, 2018

Source: Global Times

A few days ago, the Huffington Post published the draft Nuclear Posture Review of the Donald Trump administration, which presents Washington's intention to use US nuclear weapons as a hegemonic tool again.

In the Cold War, nuclear weapons were indeed hegemonic tools of the US and the Soviet Union. The two superpowers were embroiled in a frenzied nuclear arms race to cement their hegemonic statuses. They developed large numbers of different types of nuclear weapons, and deployed these weapons on a hair-trigger alert.

There is a difference between regarding nuclear weapons as a hegemonic tool than using them as a weapon of last resort. If a country considers its nuclear weapons only as a measure of last resort, the quantity or variety of its stockpile would not be of vital importance. It would define a few extreme situations in which nuclear weapons may be used and it would develop and deploy its nuclear weapons for these situations. 

However, if a country considers its nuclear weapons as a hegemonic tool, the consequences would be very different. It would consider any nuclear weapons in its rival countries as challenges to its hegemony; it would not tolerate that the number of its nuclear weapons, especially its strategic nuclear weapons, would be less than those in other countries; it would try to increase the types of its nuclear weapons so it could show its nuclear muscle on as many occasions as possible.

After the end of Cold War, the logic of nuclear hegemony is no longer convincing. The roles of the US' nuclear deterrence had been reduced to defend its vital national interests. Yet the Trump administration is trying to use US nuclear weapons for global and regional hegemony again. It recently issued a National Security Strategy that defines China as a revisionist which is challenging US hegemony. The draft Nuclear Posture Review tries to prove that the US needs a tailored strategy to counter China's nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities, as China is using these capabilities to challenge the US-led world order.

The draft document groundlessly claims that China would use a limited number of its nuclear weapons; indicates that the US would use its nuclear weapons to respond to non-nuclear Chinese aggressions; and says that the US will increase the range of options for graduated use of nuclear weapons.

It is difficult to understand these points if we assume that US nuclear weapons are used to defend only vital national interests. For example, how can China use a more limited number of nuclear weapons given that China has a limited number of nuclear weapons? However, the draft report does allow the US to show its nuclear muscle in more ways and on more occasions, and makes the US look more like a hegemon. As for US national security, the consequences may be opposite. The US could prepare more nuclear tools and could threaten to use nuclear weapons on more occasions. This would add more shadows of nuclear war. If a nuclear war breaks out, the US can't isolate itself.

Facing a new threat posed by the Trump administration's Nuclear Posture Review, China could have simple responses. On the one hand, it should continue to focus on raising the survivability of its nuclear weapons in suffering a first strike and their penetration capability against missile defense systems. On the other hand, China needs to reaffirm that its nuclear weapons are only for deterring a nuclear attack. China has no interest in competing for global or regional hegemony and it does not intend to use its nuclear weapons as hegemonic tool.

Fortunately, the draft Nuclear Posture Review has positive comments on the China-US nuclear dialogue. It is hoped that the dialogue will play an important role in stabilizing the China-US nuclear relationship.

This article originally appeared in Global Times.

About the Author

Li Bin

Former Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program and Asia Program

Li was a senior fellow working jointly in the Nuclear Policy Program and Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    China-U.S. Cyber-Nuclear C3 Stability
      • +4

      George Perkovich, Ariel (Eli) Levite, Lyu Jinghua, …

  • Article
    Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Entanglement

      James M. Acton, Tong Zhao, Li Bin

Li Bin
Former Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program and Asia Program
Li Bin
SecurityArms ControlNorth AmericaUnited StatesEast AsiaChina

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?

    The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.

      James D.J. Brown

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Trump Turns NATO into a Tool of Coercion

    The full list of humiliations Europe has endured since Donald Trump returned to the White House makes for grim reading. But Washington’s adversarial approach to its allies undermines its own power base.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    Pushing Beirut into an Armed Conflict With Hezbollah Is Insane

    The party’s domestic and regional roles have changed, so Lebanon should devise a disarmament strategy that encompasses this.

      Michael Young

  • Article
    Continental Asia and the Rise of Portfolio Politics

    “Central Asia” as an analytical category is itself part of the problem. The term is a Soviet administrative inheritance, drawn along lines that served the convenience of Moscow. The Central Asian states the Soviets named no longer see themselves through this category alone and are not aligning across political blocs but are instead building external partnerships sector by sector, assigning different partners to different functions.

      Jennifer B. Murtazashvili

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone Attacks

    The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments.

      Alexandra Prokopenko

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.