Michael D. Swaine

Senior Associate
Asia Program
Swaine is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.
 

Education

PhD, AM, Harvard University
BA, George Washington University 

Languages

Japanese; Mandarin Chinese

Contact Information

 

Michael Swaine is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies. Formerly a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, Swaine is a specialist in Chinese defense and foreign policy, U.S.–China relations, and East Asian international relations.

He has authored and edited more than a dozen books and monographs and many journal articles and book chapters in these areas, directs several security-related projects with Chinese partners, and advises the U.S. government on Asian security issues. He received his doctorate in government from Harvard University.

  • Other Publications China Leadership Monitor September 5, 2014
    Xi Jinping's July 2014 Trip to Latin America

    Xi Jinping’s ten-day July 2014 trip to Latin America constitutes an important milestone in the development of China-Latin America relations.

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  • Other Publications China Leadership Monitor July 28, 2014
    Chinese Views and Commentary on Periphery Diplomacy

    It remains to be seen how Beijing will reconcile the contradictory policy imperatives of deepening positive relations with neighboring countries while more firmly advancing China’s territorial and resource interests and claims.

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  • Podcast May 14, 2014
    The U.S.-Japan Alliance in East Asia (Part II)

    While the United States cannot and should not necessarily defer to all of China's core interests, it must recognize that China’s desire to have greater control over its immediate environment in the Western Pacific is a fundamental underlying issue in the bilateral relationship.

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  • Podcast April 29, 2014
    The U.S.-Japan Alliance in East Asia (Part I)

    The United States and Japan must strike a delicate balance between improving their ability to anticipate and respond to crises and being perceived as attempting to contain China or remilitarize northeast Asia.

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  • Other Publications China Leadership Monitor February 3, 2014
    Chinese Views and Commentary on the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone

    China’s failure to reassure other nations and clearly define the enforcement and impacts of its ADIZ has undermined any purported stabilizing intentions and damaged its larger strategic interests.

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  • Report December 12, 2013 中文 Full Text
    U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications

    Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship.

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  • Op-Ed BBC November 29, 2013 中文
    China Air Zone Tensions

    Beijing needs to clarify how it will treat surveillance aircraft and other potentially “threatening” military planes that are transiting the air defense zone but not heading toward Chinese airspace.

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  • Op-Ed China Leadership Monitor September 21, 2013
    Chinese Views on Cybersecurity in Foreign Relations

    The apparent unanimity of viewpoints within China on cybersecurity suggests that this issue will remain a major source of tension and differences in the Sino-U.S. relationship.

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  • Op-Ed Diplomat June 21, 2013 中文
    How to Contain Japan-China Tensions

    War is unlikely between China and Japan, but ongoing crises are not. Bold diplomacy is needed.

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  • Op-Ed Asahi Shimbun June 7, 2013
    Long-term Study Suggests Sino-Japanese Tensions Likely to Increase

    The U.S. military capacity to deter China and assure countries in the Western Pacific could diminish, if China successfully deployed new missiles, submarines and other weapons in those waters.

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  • America's Challenge
    Washington May 31, 2011
    America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century

    As the world’s predominant political, economic, and military force, the United States faces a significant challenge in responding to China’s rising power and influence, especially in Asia. This challenge will require more effective U.S. policies and a reassessment of America’s fundamental strategic assumptions and relationships.

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  • Taiwan Elections
    In The Japan-U.S. Alliance and China-Taiwan Relations January 29, 2009
    Sino-American Crisis Management and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

    An assessment of the degree to which Washington and Beijing are willing or able to implement crisis management principles like maintaining direct channels of communication and preserving military flexibility.

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  • Washington July 16, 2007
    Assessing the Threat: The Chinese Military and Taiwan's Security

    Bringing together experts from the U.S. and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army, and China’s security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific.

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  • Washington December 4, 2006
    Managing Sino-American Crises: Case Studies and Analysis

    Sensitivities and suspicions between Washington and Beijing have heightened as China’s global power and influence have grown. Arguably, this new international order could increase the chances of a political-military crisis—or perhaps outright conflict—between the two powers.

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  • Strategic Asia 2005-06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty September 30, 2005
    Military Modernization in Taiwan

    Taiwan’s military is clearly modernizing and will improve in the near- to mid-term. A reorientation away from an army-centric focus has led to such improvements as joint warfighting capabilities among branches of the military and improvements in missile defense systems, front-line military units, and naval defense capabilities.

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  • EastBridge June 30, 2005
    Managing Relations with the United States

    Chen Shui-Bien focused excessively on electoral politics in Taiwan, allowing them to trump a careful consideration of the long-term strategic importance of its delicate relationship with the United States.

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  • The Okinawa Question and the U.S.-Japan Alliance March 25, 2005
    U.S.-China Relations and the Implications for Okinawa

    An examination of the broad context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting both the current strengthened foundation for cooperation that exists between the two countries and the continued presence of factors that could produce confrontation and even conflict in the future.

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  • Carnegie July 21, 2002 Washington, D.C.
    Ballistic Missiles and Missile Defense in Asia
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  • Cover - Interpreting China's Grand Strategy
    RAND Corporation January 1, 2000
    Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

    The book reveals why managing the rise of China constitutes one of the most important challenges facing the United States in the early 21st century.

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  • Diplomat July 11, 2014
    China and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

    With Japan’s recent embrace of collective self-defense, the U.S.-Japan alliance is once again in the spotlight.

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  • May 14, 2014 Washington, DC 中文
    India, China, and Russia: Prospects for Cooperation

    India, China, and Russia are all set to play a major role on the global stage throughout the rest of the twenty-first century. The relationships between the three nations are complex, however, with opportunities for cooperation in areas of convergent interests often being hamstrung by long-standing disputes and rivalries.

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  • April 8, 2014 Washington, DC 中文
    China’s Hypersonic Weapons Development

    China tested a hypersonic gliding weapon for the first time on January 9. Although details of the test are murky, it confirms a long-suspected Chinese interest in developing hypersonic weapons.

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  • January 22, 2014 Washington, DC 中文
    Managing China’s Rise

    The United States must confront the uncomfortable reality that China’s economic and military might may eventually rival or even surpass its own.

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  • December 12, 2013 Washington, DC 中文
    Public and Elite Views of the U.S.-China Relationship

    Mutual perceptions in the United States and China have a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship, affecting how policymakers manage conflicts and seek cooperation.

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  • December 4, 2013 Beijing 中文
    Carnegie-Tsinghua Global Dialogue

    This day-long conference explored China's evolving foreign policy and global role with a view to identifying effective solutions to shared global challenges.

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  • March 28, 2013 Washington, D.C.
    China, America, and the Shifting Balance of Prestige

    Richard Nixon’s 1972 decision to normalize relations with the Peoples’ Republic of China changed the global political balance in deep and lasting ways. While today’s U.S.-China relationship—a direct result of that groundbreaking trip—is in a place few could have imagined in 1972, it faces many difficult challenges in the coming years.

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  • U.S. Pivot
    December 14, 2012 Washington, D.C.
    A Critical Assessment of U.S. Rebalancing to Asia

    The Obama administration argues that the realignment of American military might and political focus is not meant to counter a more assertive China, but to refresh relationships with allies and to maintain regional stability.

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  • October 12, 2012 Beijing 中文
    U.S.-China Relations in a Year of Political Transition

    The heated U.S. presidential election, coinciding with China’s once-a-decade political transition, has led to increased scrutiny of U.S.-China bilateral relations.

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  • July 13, 2012 Washington, D.C.
    The Prospects and Challenges of Cross-Strait Relations

    With the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the 18th Party Congress in China, both countries are facing an important political year. The political climate in the region is influenced by a number of factors, including both countries' relationships with Taiwan.

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  • April 17, 2012 Beijing
    Future Challenges for U.S.-China Relations

    The U.S. pivot to the Asia-Pacific has created both tension and opportunity in its relations with China.

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Source: http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/index.cfm?fa=expert_view&expert_id=119

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