The Syrian regime looks increasingly brittle. This has major implications for what might follow a nuclear deal with Iran, and indeed for what may follow if a deal is not reached.
Egypt’s political scene has changed radically from the vigorous pluralism that followed the 2011 uprising; in 2015 the Islamist and secular groups that won those elections are excluded or marginalized.
Political overreach and internal rivalries may prove obstacles to long-term military control in Egypt.
The worsening violence in Yemen has led to exacerbating regional disputes, hindering any chance for a regional role or mediation to achieve peace.
Faced with declining gas production and falling oil prices, Algeria is moving to tap its promising shale resources—but success is not assured.
A generation gap and regional inequality are fueling the political instability and violent extremism facing Tunisia’s new leaders.
The nuclear deal’s potential benefits to sectarian relations in the Gulf have been offset by the escalating violence in Yemen and a wave of Sunni triumphalism.
Lebanon was founded with a multisectarian identity. However, internal challenges and external threats have led to an increasingly fragile sectarian landscape.
Since the 2011 Arab uprisings, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy in the Middle East has been non-ideological, realist, and defensive in intent, but negative in its implications for democracy.
The Islamic State will only be ousted from Iraq’s second largest city if Sunni tribal forces join the fight. That will require rebuilding their trust in Baghdad.
The Assad regime’s belief that, by hanging tough, it will compel the United States both to accept its terms and make its regional allies follow suit is a high-risk gamble.
The United States and Europe should encourage Israeli and Palestinian leaders to use international organizations and law as an alternative to violence.
The Islamic State’s expansion in Qalamoun is not the real threat to Lebanon’s security—the Nusra Front’s attempt to gain more control along the Lebanese side of the border is.
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