Middle East

 
In the spotlight
 

The Assad Regime: Winning on Points

The Assad regime is clawing its way back to a position of dominance in the Syrian conflict. But it can only maintain that position as long as the armed conflict endures.

A Melancholy Perspective on Syria

The time when Assad might have been defeated by a truly inept opposition leadership and fragmented rebel movement has passed.

From Arab Spring to Presidential Spring

The “Presidential Spring” now underway in the Arab world reveals the enduring power of entrenched elite players and institutional actors and their ability to perpetuate self-serving—and mostly authoritarian—politics.

Congress Should Repeal Law Obstructing U.S. Assistance to Libya

Washington’s ability to deliver effective support to Libya’s fragile post-revolution government is vital to the country’s future.

Egypt’s Judges Join In

Egypt’s judiciary sometimes acted as a brake on authoritarian impulses, but it has now joined the repression of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egypt’s Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers

Egypt is far more violent and unstable than it has been in decades. With government repression driving a cycle of political violence, a different approach is needed.

A New U.S. Approach to Gulf Security

The United States must focus more on promoting political and security sector reforms in the Gulf that are critical to long-term regional stability by better integrating its use of military and diplomatic tools.

A Comprehensive Strategy for Syria: Next Steps for the West

The West should look beyond the Geneva II conference and implement a comprehensive strategy to push the conflict toward a settlement.

What About Egypt’s Non-Islamist Parties?

Egypt’s chronically weak non-Islamist political parties will be tested in crucial elections in 2014. Here is at look at the major players and the flaws holding them back.

Syria’s Spring Offensives and the Death of Diplomacy

The failure of the Geneva-II peace talks has raised the stakes for the Assad regime and the opposition, each of which still seeks to gain a decisive advantage on the battlefield.

The Battle for Benghazi

A new security landscape has emerged in Benghazi—one marked by a tenuous division of labor between formal forces led by the military and informal forces comprising the Islamist militias.

Arab World Faces Unemployment Crisis

The International Monetary Fund expects the average economic growth in the Arab countries to be lower than 4 percent in 2014, a modest figure that is not enough to reduce the high unemployment rates.

The Egypt Effect: Sharpened Tensions, Reshuffled Alliances

The overthrow of Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi has heightened Islamist-secularist tensions and pushed actors toward zero-sum politics in the region.

The Sisi Spring

Regardless of its policy performance, a Sisi presidency is not likely to be a disaster. It may disappoint many but it is unlikely to collapse and might evolve in a variety of ways.

Taking Egypt Back to the First Republic

Defense Minister General Abdul-Fattah Sisi will almost certainly become Egypt’s next president, but at the cost of taking Egypt back to the first republic.

 
  • Article
    The Syrian Opposition’s Bleak Outlook
    Yezid Sayigh April 17, 2014 عربي

    The Syrian National Coalition is living on borrowed time. Unless it can develop credible political leadership and effective administration inside Syria, the outlook for those trying to make it succeed looks bleak.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Tartus in the Present Crisis: A Mirror of the Syrian Regime
    Kheder Khaddour April 13, 2014 Jadaliyya

    In Tartus, shielded from much of the current conflict, the Syrian regime had a golden opportunity to undertake and demonstrate reforms. It instead chose to continue to portray the state and society as unchanged and unchanging, implicitly asserting that all is well.

     
  • Other Publications
    Aid to Egypt: Black Hole or Black Gold?
    Michele Dunne, Lina Khatib April 10, 2014 Weekly Wonk

    Continued repression threatens to lead Egypt into a dark tunnel of insurgency and instability. The United States must implement aid policies that make accountability to one’s citizens a key condition to receive U.S. aid.

     
  • Article
    The Assad Regime: Winning on Points
    Yezid Sayigh April 10, 2014 عربي

    The Assad regime is clawing its way back to a position of dominance in the Syrian conflict. But it can only maintain that position as long as the armed conflict endures.

     
  • Article
    A Melancholy Perspective on Syria
    Yezid Sayigh April 8, 2014 عربي

    The time when Assad might have been defeated by a truly inept opposition leadership and fragmented rebel movement has passed.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Turkey: Local Elections Gave Huge Victory to Erdogan
    Bayram Balci April 3, 2014 Foreign Policy Journal

    The recent elections mark a new start and a new departure for the Turkish prime minister’s political career. Erdogan has proved that he is still popular, but despite this popularity and this victory, he has a lot of work ahead.

     
  • Op-Ed
    From Arab Spring to Presidential Spring
    Yezid Sayigh April 3, 2014 Al-Hayat عربي

    The “Presidential Spring” now underway in the Arab world reveals the enduring power of entrenched elite players and institutional actors and their ability to perpetuate self-serving—and mostly authoritarian—politics.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Erdoğan’s Pyrrhic Victory
    Sinan Ülgen April 3, 2014 Project Syndicate

    After winning recent local elections, Turkey’s prime minister may opt to lower the political temperature at home in the hope of repairing the country’s frayed relations abroad.

     
  • Testimony
    Congress Should Repeal Law Obstructing U.S. Assistance to Libya
    Frederic Wehrey April 3, 2014 House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security

    Washington’s ability to deliver effective and flexible support to Libya’s fragile post-revolution government is vital to the country’s future.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Egypt’s Judges Join In
    Nathan Brown, Michele Dunne April 2, 2014 Foreign Affairs

    The institutions of the Egyptian state that used to command respect because they were seen as being above the political fray—the judiciary as well as the army—now seem to be very willing participants in the repression of the Muslim Brotherhood.

     

Syria in Crisis

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About the Program

The Carnegie Middle East Program combines in-depth local knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to examine economic, sociopolitical, and strategic interests in the Arab world. Through detailed country studies and the exploration of key crosscutting themes, the Carnegie Middle East Program, in coordination with the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, provides analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region. The program has special expertise in political reform and Islamist participation in pluralistic politics.

 
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