A discussion of expectations for Putin’s fourth term within the context of an increasingly fraught U.S.-Russia relationship.
There is no doubt that the U.S.-Russia relationship is now inherently adversarial. There are very few guardrails in place.
Russia has recovered enough of its economic and military strength to back an agile influence campaign well beyond its borders.
The Kremlin is relying on a highly adaptable toolkit to chip away at the liberal international order and to capitalize on the West’s inability to come up with a unified strategy to respond.
Engagement in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic has tested Russia’s and China’s abilities to manage their differences and translate the rhetoric of partnership into tangible gains.
Unless countries like Mexico confront election-related vulnerabilities and the manipulation of voters through fake news and propaganda, the democratic process will be at risk.
Ukraine and the EU are closer than ever before. But events over the last four years have also shown how far apart they still are in economic capacity, governance, and their visions for the future.
The jury is still out on U.S.-Russian relations with the Trump administration in power. Both sides made mistakes in 2017; but there were some positives, too.
U.S.-Russia relations are unlikely to improve soon, yet they need to avoid future clashes. The years since the Cold War provide some lessons on how to do that.
The Russia-U.S. relationship will likely be worse tomorrow than it is today. Any resolution will require either or both of them to change long-held views.