Few regions have transformed as consequentially as Asia in the twenty-first century. In recent decades, China has risen faster and today outranks its major proximate competitors, India and Japan, on economic and defense indices by a huge margin. The United States’ interest in balancing against China is especially significant for India, because the contradictions between New Delhi and an increasingly assertive Beijing are the sharpest in the region.

In his book, India and the Rebalancing of Asia, C. Raja Mohan delineates the prospects for India’s role in structuring a new Asian geopolitical order. Grounding his analysis in the evolution of Indian foreign and security policies from the colonial era to the present, Mohan argues that China’s rise has compelled India to discard its traditional ambivalence about Chinese power. He suggests countering Beijing by strengthening national power and developing partnerships with other states, primarily the United States. The book also evaluates India’s likely contributions to a new Asian security, political and economic order. This assessment is made in the light of both New Delhi’s enduring regional interests and the policy changes envisioned by the second Trump administration.

Carnegie India hosted C. Raja Mohan for a discussion on his book India and the Rebalancing of Asia at the Security Studies Seminar. The discussion was moderated by Srinath Raghavan.

DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS

Historical continuity and the evolution of India’s foreign policy: Participants acknowledged the importance of India’s pre-independence experiences and historical continuity in shaping its foreign policy. They noted that India’s external outlook is deeply rooted in the geopolitical practices of British India. During the period, India exercised its regional agency, wherein it managed a large territory, maintained a substantial military, actively secured the Indian Ocean, and influenced the wider Asian region. India was thus a regional player with a strategic perspective, exercising its own policies and ideas, rather than being a mere British colony. These foundational experiences and approaches remain embedded and continue to shape modern India. Furthermore, the discussion highlighted the importance of liberal internationalist ideas in Nehru’s foreign policy, which prioritized multilateralism, non-alignment, and normative engagement in global institutions. These ideas also impacted India’s economic and political relations with other countries, as well as its role in the international economic order. However, over time, New Delhi’s shift from an inward-looking import substitution model to an open trade-oriented economic framework had a significant influence on its foreign and security policies. Thus, participants appreciated the evolution of India’s multifaceted foreign policy, which draws on its historical knowledge and experience, while adapting to emerging geopolitical ideas and practices.

U.S.-China Dynamics and Implications for India: Participants discussed India’s evolving relationships with China and the United States and noted that dynamics between the three countries are often intertwined. New Delhi’s relations with Beijing have evolved from high expectations of the 1950s to the problems of the 1960s. This was followed by attempts at normalization in the 1980s but has now returned to a phase marked by deep bilateral and structural differences over the last decade. China’s GDP is nearly five times larger than India’s and has significantly higher military expenditure. It has also emerged as a dominant trading partner in Asia, as well as a major exporter of capital and technology, thereby shifting the regional balance of power in its favor. Participants noted that this shift coincides with a period in which the relationship between China and the United States has entered a more complex phase, wherein balancing Beijing has become a principal objective for Washington. This has led to an alignment of interests between India and the United State, deepening cooperation across economic, geopolitical, and defense domains, as well as increasing engagements within Indo-Pacific frameworks and the Quad. However, participants noted the initial reluctance and internal tensions in the bilateral relationship, both during and after the Cold War, as seen in the 2005–2008 nuclear debate. Despite this, the relationship progressed further especially under the Biden administration, with countering China becoming a central objective for both countries as Washington took unprecedented steps to solidify ties with India.

India’s Strategic Options in Asia: Participants explored India’s policy options within the evolving U.S.–China dynamic in Asia, emphasizing its potential to emerge as a balancer in the region. First, they observed that a key approach has been India’s effort to redefine its trade policy. For example, in the last few years, India has signed free trade agreements with its Western partners, including the United Kingdom, the European Union, New Zealand, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates. This highlights India’s evolving orientation to Western economies and the increasing, yet cautious, willingness to open its economy. Second, participants also discussed the military domain, where India’s ability to keep pace with China requires a substantial coalition strategy and partnerships, along with effective and swift internal reforms. Third, India should deepen engagements in the east, with South Korea, Japan, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, in sectors such as defense, trade, science and technology. Lastly, India’s position in Asia will substantially be contingent on internal modernization and its ability to move beyond existing bureaucratic frameworks. Looking forward, participants emphasized that India is in a transitional phase where its size and weight in Asia matter; however, internal reform rather than focusing on broad geopolitical discourses and phrases remains the key to establishing its presence. 

This summary was prepared by Mugdha Satpute, research assistant, and Serene Joshua, young ambassador, with the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India.