• Research
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie India logoCarnegie lettermark logo
{
  "authors": [
    "Sinan Ülgen"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Turkey’s Transformation"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Europe",
    "Türkiye",
    "Middle East",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

Terrorism Fails to Reach Its Goal

The Turkish public, whose sensitivities regarding Syria have consistently grown more intense over the years, must now be persuaded of the astuteness of Turkey's foreign policy choices.

Link Copied
By Sinan Ülgen
Published on Dec 21, 2016

Source: Anadolu Agency

The assassination of Andrey Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, in Ankara on Monday evening during the opening ceremony of an exhibition has expectedly sent shockwaves all around.

An act of this nature, where an ambassador was killed, is a first in Turkey.

What happened basically is that the head of a foreign mission appointed to Turkey became the victim of a deadly act of terrorism while under the protection of the Turkish government.

In this respect, Turkey has a historic responsibility in bringing this deplorable act to full light.

I suppose this responsibility takes on greater importance given that Turkey itself lost many members of its foreign missions to Armenian terrorism in the recent past.

Turkey is expected to respond to this act with the kind of care, precision, character and depth that it would have expected of other countries had one of its diplomats been the victim of a similar attack. As a matter of fact, Turkish officials, in their first statements to the press, expressed similar feelings.

All dimensions of attack must be brought to light

Primarily, every single aspect of the incident must be investigated in the most competent manner.

It is essential to categorically establish whether this act was actually perpetrated by a single person in a way similar to what has come to be termed as "lone-wolf attacks" or by a more organized terrorist network that has managed to infiltrate the Turkish police force.

In an extremely justified manner, Russia will expect Turkey to carry out such a meticulous investigation.

On a different note, we must also dwell on the likely consequences of the fact that this act was perpetrated by an attacker who carried an official police ID.

Indeed, what we have seen immediately after the attack indicates that many tend to think, in their analysis of this incident, that terrorist networks have apparently infiltrated even the staff assigned by the Turkish police to ensure the security of such events attended by members of foreign missions.

The very first condition for Turkey to ensure its domestic security and to give out the message that it is a safe country is to make sure that its police force and intelligence are composed of people who are absolutely loyal to the Turkish state.

This incident will be assessed as Turkey's failure to fully purge its police and intelligence of any such disloyal elements despite the concerted efforts to that end that have intensified especially in the aftermath of the coup attempt of July 15.

Normalization process not disrupted

If this attack was aimed at creating a tense atmosphere in Turkish-Russian relations, which had indeed been strained over the shooting of a Russian warplane on Nov. 24, 2015, we need to stress that this time terrorism has failed to reach its goal.

As can be seen from the first official statements by Moscow and Ankara, which were friendly and prudent, this act has failed to hamper the normalization process between Turkey and Russia, which has been gaining momentum for some time.

We might, on the other hand, reckon that the timing of the attack may not be completely independent of the meeting in Moscow on the future of Syria, held with the participation of the Turkish, Russian, and Iranian foreign and defense ministers.

Indeed, the attack somewhat undermined Turkey's influence prior to these challenging negotiations.

As a country that has failed to protect the life of the Russian ambassador, who was the Russian president's representative in Turkey, it has become more difficult for Turkey to defend its arguments against the Russian ones with the same level of power and influence, at least immediately after this attack.

Moreover, Turkey lacks a natural ally that could give it support throughout these negotiations.

As the only NATO member that participated in these negotiations, Turkey will be endeavoring to have a consensus reached regarding an expected operation of the Russia and Iran-backed regime forces in Idlib.

Turkey is also concerned about the condition of the civilian population and opposition elements in the same area with regard to the awaited operation as well as several critical issues that matter greatly in terms of its national interests, such as the status of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Difficult foreign policy choices

On the other hand, the Turkish government's rhetoric pushing for "regime change in Syria" in the recent past has resulted in a certain sector of Turkish society developing a high level of sensitivity toward the human tragedy unfolding in Syria, and particularly in Aleppo.

In the meantime, however, Turkey has forsaken its former aspirations aimed at creating a new order in the Middle East and adopted a more realistic foreign policy stance while also significantly toning down its "regime change" rhetoric along the way.

It has also embarked on a process of negotiation with Russia and Iran, the two supporters of the Syrian regime, in order to obtain concrete results, however limited they may be.

As a natural result of what we may call "the returns of realpolitik," Turkey has already made some gains.

For instance, we need to point out that the ongoing success of Operation Euphrates Shield is a result of seeking alliances at a tactical level.

But also precisely for this reason, Ankara, compared to its past reactions, has been forced to remain silent in the face of such incidents as the bombing of Aleppo.

Foreign policy is an area where countries have to make such hard choices.

The Turkish public, whose sensitivities regarding Syria have consistently grown more intense over the years, must now be persuaded of the astuteness of these right foreign policy choices and be made more resistant to possible provocations.

Otherwise, choices made in the name of a more realistic foreign policy have the likelihood of triggering a reaction in a certain portion of Turkish society, especially at a time when Turkish foreign policy is undergoing a transformation.

In democracies, social sensitivities have a bearing on how foreign policy takes shape.

But foreign policy cannot be built exclusively on social sensitivities.

The reason for this is, domestic public pressure can be influential in the short- or medium-term, but foreign policy choices bring long-term, actually very long-term consequences.

Now that Turkey is bound to live in such a challenging part of the world, the importance of establishing a balance between its foreign and domestic policies is becoming more and more obvious with every single incident, a balance which is a significant gain of the republican tradition.

This article was originally published by Anadolu Agency.

About the Author

Sinan Ülgen

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Sinan Ülgen is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, transatlantic relations, international trade, economic security, and digital policy.

    Recent Work

  • Q&A
    Can the EU Achieve Its Tech Ambitions?

      Raluca Csernatoni, Sinan Ülgen

  • Q&A
    Can the EU Overcome Divisions on Defense?

      Catherine Hoeffler, Sinan Ülgen

Sinan Ülgen
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Sinan Ülgen
SecurityForeign PolicyRussiaEuropeTürkiyeMiddle EastIran

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

  • Commentary
    The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports

    This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.

      Vrinda Sahai

  • Article
    Military Lessons from Operation Sindoor

    The India-Pakistan conflict that played out between May 6 and May 10, 2025, offers several military lessons. This article presents key takeaways from Operation Sindoor and breaks down how India’s preparations shaped the outcome and what more is needed to strengthen future readiness.

      Dinakar Peri

  • Book
    India and the Sovereignty Principle: The Disaggregation Imperative

    This book offers a comprehensive analysis of India's evolving relationship with sovereignty in a complex global order. Moving beyond conventional narratives, it examines how the sovereignty principle shapes India's behavior across four critical domains—from traditional military power to contemporary data governance.

      Rudra Chaudhuri, Nabarun Roy

  • Commentary
    NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer

    On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.

      Tejas Bharadwaj

  • Article
    Hidden Tides: IUU Fishing and Regional Security Dynamics for India

    This article examines the scale and impact of Chinese IUU fishing operations globally and identifies the nature of the challenge posed by IUU fishing in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It also investigates why existing maritime law and international frameworks have struggled to address this growing threat.

      Ajay Kumar, Charukeshi Bhatt

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie India
Carnegie India logo, white
Unit C-4, 5, 6, EdenparkShaheed Jeet Singh MargNew Delhi – 110016, IndiaPhone: 011-40078687
  • Research
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie India
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.