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On May 12, the United States, North Korea and the other members of the 6-Party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program will hold a first round of working level talks. Don’t expect any progress, however, either at these talks or anytime until after the November U.S. election. Both sides are playing the waiting game and hoping the circumstances will improve their position after the election.
Each day that passes allows North Korea to advance its nuclear capabilities and further establish itself as the ninth nuclear weapon state. The exact size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is a mystery, but press reports suggest that portions of the U.S. intelligence community believe Pyongyang has quadrupled its arsenal to 8-9 weapons in the past year.
On May 12, the United States, North Korea and the other members of the 6-Party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program will hold a first round of working level talks. Don’t expect any progress, however, either at these talks or anytime until after the November U.S. election. Both sides are playing the waiting game and hoping the circumstances will improve their position after the election.
Each day that passes allows North Korea to advance its nuclear capabilities and further establish itself as the ninth nuclear weapon state. The exact size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is a mystery, but press reports suggest that portions of the U.S. intelligence community believe Pyongyang has quadrupled its arsenal to 8-9 weapons in the past year. It’s not known if North Korea is willing to trade its nuclear capabilities for a new relationship with the United States, but it is clear that the price they may demand for yielding their nuclear assets has gone up, not down, since the slow moving nuclear crisis began in October 2002. It also appears that Pyongyang hopes to find a more willing negotiating partner should Senator John Kerry win the November election.
The Bush administration continues to hold to a tough public line, maintaining that the U.S. will only improve relations with Pyongyang once that state agrees to the complete, verified, and irreversible dismantlement of its nuclear program. The goal is the right one, but demanding that Pyongyang move first to disarm before any benefits begin to flow to the North has allowed North Korea to play the victim in the international arena. Even close U.S. allies in the region are asking the U.S. to show more flexibility. It appears, however, that the United States is prepared to maintain this line as long as the negotiating process, such as it is, continues. On-going talks, despite a total lack of progress, allow the President and his campaign to maintain the U.S. is successfully managing the nuclear issue, when in fact it is moving closer and closer to growing out of anyone’s control. In the end, the President’s advisors believe they will be in a stronger position to negotiate if and when they win re-election.
So with both sides waiting out the clock, there is little hope that progress
will be made anytime soon. However, as the clock continues to tick, Pyongyang
may look to create an even greater crisis at a time of its choosing to put pressure
on the U.S. to negotiate under duress. Previously, such gambits were unsettling.
Now that North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are coming of age, they are
more dangerous than ever.
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Although Senate Democrats and others are calling for complete dismantlement and removal of nuclear and chemical weapons from North Korea, the North Koreans have entirely different expectations. Political leaders in the United States should clarify what progress looks like, rather than attempting to negotiate a perfect deal.
George Perkovich
The perception that the United States is seeking the removal of the North Korean and Iranian governments has negative effects that remain underappreciated in Washington
George Perkovich
The smart way to get tough on Iran would be to commit to the nuclear deal, enforce it to the hilt, and work with global partners on a long-term strategy to deal with Iran’s challenge.
William J. Burns, Jake Sullivan
Unlike North Korea, Iran may well be motivated to live up to the terms of its nuclear deal, while the United States may find it even more difficult to deliver.
George Perkovich
A nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran is by no means inevitable.
Mark Hibbs
