For Immediate Release: January 24, 2006
Contact: Jennifer Linker, +1 202/939-2372, jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org 

Is Egypt irreversibly moving toward democratization, or is it merely undergoing a brief liberal episode that will not fundamentally change the way political power is exercised? Middle East specialist Michele Dunne presents her latest analysis in the Carnegie Paper, Evaluating Egyptian Reform, and assesses recent reform measures and the next priorities for Egypt. To read go to http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP66.Dunne.FINAL.pdf.

Dunne argues that Egypt’s recent changes in law and policy contain the seeds for further political opening. She notes, however, that the fall 2005 parliamentary elections highlighted serious distortions in the Egyptian scene: widespread voter apathy, extreme weakness of political parties, the lack of a legal venue for Islamist representation, and the role of security forces in political life.

For Egypt to make further progress there would need to be significant further constitutional and legal changes, including introducing presidential term limits and amending the electoral system and procedures for forming political parties.

Dunne recommends principles that should govern U.S. policy at this new juncture. Rather than trying to get involved in sensitive issues such as Islamist participation, the United States should press for openness and development of a democratic system so that Egyptians can devise their own solutions. Areas where the United States should exert leverage include Free Trade Agreement talks and more effective use of economic and military assistance. 

This paper is part of a series of Carnegie Endowment country case studies on the Arab world, which attempts to address what would constitute qualitative political change in each country and what role outside forces can play to support a domestic reform process. To read more go to www.CarnegieEndowment.org/MiddleEast. 

Michele Dunne is editor of the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin, and visiting assistant professor of Arabic at Georgetown University. A specialist on Middle East affairs, formerly at the State Department and White House, Dunne is author of Integrating Democracy Promotion into U.S. Middle East Policy, and Libya: Security Is Not Enough, both available at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/pubs.

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