Paper
Adam Baczko, Gilles Dorronsoro, Arthur Quesnay
{
"authors": [
"Gilles Dorronsoro"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "SAP",
"programs": [
"South Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"South Asia",
"Afghanistan",
"Asia"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Military",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Afghanistan after McChrystal
The selection of General David Petraeus offers a window to analyze the grim realities in Afghanistan and start implementing the most effective way forward.
Published on Jun 27, 2010
Source: The Washington Post
On the ground, the situation looks unwinnable, and the United States will not be able to reverse the trajectory of the war in the next year. America and its partners decided -- sensibly -- not to go through with a major military offensive in Kandahar this summer. Officials in the area are highly corrupt, there is little trust in government or judiciary, and there is virtually no chance for success without a reliable local partner.
With security and political stability across Afghanistan continuing to deteriorate, U.S. strategy needs to be rethought. The coalition faces the risk of an endless engagement with an unsustainable cost and intolerable loss of life that cannot be won militarily.
President Hamid Karzai is in decline and the Taliban is gaining strength, so Washington's best option is to begin negotiations with the Taliban. Patraeus should begin by scaling back military offensives and reducing coalition casualties. This winter the coalition should declare a cease-fire and start negotiating with the Taliban.
Without a military solution, negotiating with the Taliban is the only option. A negotiated agreement can pave the way for a unity government and hopefully stabilize the country. The arrival of Petraeus offers a window to analyze the grim realities and start implementing the most effective way forward.
About the Author
Gilles Dorronsoro
Former Nonresident Scholar, South Asia Program
Dorronsoro’s research focuses on security and political development in Afghanistan. He was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne in Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes.
- Building a Syrian State in a Time of Civil War
- Waiting for the Taliban in AfghanistanPaper
Gilles Dorronsoro
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- Caught in the Middle: Chinese Biotech Firms’ Divergent Responses to U.S. SanctionsCommentary
Chinese biotech companies have been on the receiving end of U.S. economic coercion. Yet their responses have differed significantly because firm and state interests are not uniformly aligned. For Washington, treating all Chinese tech firms the same, irrespective of their actual interests, risks pushing them farther into Beijing’s corner.
Xue Gong
- Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of StabilityCommentary
But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.
Damien Ma
- China Sells Stability Amid American VolatilityCommentary
U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.
Chong Ja Ian
- Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s DirectionCommentary
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
- China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of EverythingCommentary
Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.
Damien Ma
