Critical Crossroad: Advancing Global Opportunities to Transform Transportation

{
  "authors": [
    "Deborah Gordon",
    "Daniel Sperling"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "SCP",
  "programs": [
    "Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics"
  ],
  "projects": [
    "Carnegie Oil Initiative"
  ],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "South Asia",
    "India",
    "East Asia",
    "China",
    "Western Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Economy",
    "Climate Change"
  ]
}

In The Media

Critical Crossroad: Advancing Global Opportunities to Transform Transportation

Emerging countries must decide if they want to follow developed, auto-dependent nations down an unsustainable path or if they will instead transform their national transportation system to encourage environmentally and economically sound choices.

By Deborah Gordon and Daniel Sperling

Published on Oct 20, 2011

Source: European Financial Review

Critical Crossroad: Advancing Global OpportunitiesThe world is rapidly motorizing. At the start of the twenty-first century, some one billion vehicles occupied the roads. But this number will likely double in the next decade. By mid-century the Earth could be home to billions more cars, trucks, and motorized two-wheelers, which will collectively have profound effects on global oil demands, energy security, climate stability, and urban mobility.

We are at a critical crossroad. The global proliferation of vehicles presents many risks and opportunities. One seemingly easy way forward is to adopt last-century approaches that seek to accommodate the high demand for vehicles through cheap oil, free roads, sprawled development, and subsidized home ownership. A preferred alternative course beckons, however, one that promises new, low-carbon, location-efficient, economically productive mobility. Government, industry, and consumers—especially in emerging economies—can reinvent transportation models and employ innovative solutions to avoid a foreboding car monoculture.

About the Authors

Deborah Gordon

Former Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and Climate Program

Gordon was director of Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, where her research focuses on oil and climate change issues in North America and globally.

Daniel Sperling

Former Visiting Scholar , Energy and Climate Program

Sperling was a visiting scholar in the Energy and Climate Program at the Carnegie Endowment. He is professor of civil engineering and environmental science and policy at the University of California, Davis. He is also founding director of the university’s Institute of Transportation Studies.

Economy Climate Change North America United States South Asia India East Asia China Western Europe

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie China

Commentary
When It Comes to Superpower Geopolitics, Malaysia Is Staunchly Nonpartisan
For Malaysia, the conjunction that works is “and” not “or” when it comes to the United States and China.
Elina Noor
Commentary
ASEAN-China Digital Cooperation: Deeper but Clear-Eyed Engagement
ASEAN needs to determine how to balance perpetuating the benefits of technology cooperation with China while mitigating the risks of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China gamesmanship.
Elina Noor
Commentary
Neither Comrade nor Ally: Decoding Vietnam’s First Army Drill with China
In July 2025, Vietnam and China held their first joint army drill, a modest but symbolic move reflecting Hanoi’s strategic hedging amid U.S.–China rivalry.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
Commentary
Today’s Rare Earths Conflict Echoes the 1973 Oil Crisis — But It’s Not the Same
Regulation, not embargo, allows Beijing to shape how other countries and firms adapt to its terms.
Alvin Camba
Commentary
How China’s Growth Model Determines Its Climate Performance
Rather than climate ambitions, compatibility with investment and exports is why China supports both green and high-emission technologies.
Mathias Larsen

More Work from Carnegie China

Commentary

When It Comes to Superpower Geopolitics, Malaysia Is Staunchly Nonpartisan

For Malaysia, the conjunction that works is “and” not “or” when it comes to the United States and China.

Elina Noor

Commentary

ASEAN-China Digital Cooperation: Deeper but Clear-Eyed Engagement

ASEAN needs to determine how to balance perpetuating the benefits of technology cooperation with China while mitigating the risks of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China gamesmanship.

Elina Noor

Commentary

Neither Comrade nor Ally: Decoding Vietnam’s First Army Drill with China

In July 2025, Vietnam and China held their first joint army drill, a modest but symbolic move reflecting Hanoi’s strategic hedging amid U.S.–China rivalry.

Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Commentary

Today’s Rare Earths Conflict Echoes the 1973 Oil Crisis — But It’s Not the Same

Regulation, not embargo, allows Beijing to shape how other countries and firms adapt to its terms.

Alvin Camba

Commentary

How China’s Growth Model Determines Its Climate Performance

Rather than climate ambitions, compatibility with investment and exports is why China supports both green and high-emission technologies.

Mathias Larsen