Commentary
Geological complexity and years of mismanagement mean the Venezuelan oil industry is not the big prize officials in Moscow and Washington appear to believe.
Sergey Vakulenko
Report
Brazil in the Global Economy: Measuring the Gains From Trade
Despite holding a leading position in world trade negotiations, Brazil will benefit little from increased trade. Policy makers face acute challenges as the country struggles to generate sufficient employment and improve labor incomes.
By Ms. Sandra Polaski, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreir, Janine Berg, Scott McDonald, Karen Thierfelder, Dirk Willenbockel, Eduardo Zepeda
Published on Mar 31, 2009
The Brazilian economy has experienced sustained growth since 2000, after several turbulent decades. The country’s engagement with the global economy has played a largely positive, if secondary, role and Brazil has assumed a leading position in world trade negotiations. At the same time, the country has struggled to generate sufficient employment and improve labor incomes. Unemployment hovers at about 8 percent, and of those who work, slightly more than half do so informally. Average earnings today are lower than in the mid-1990s.
Brazilian policy makers face complicated challenges as they try to grow the economy in ways that will generate better livelihoods and incomes. The current global economic downturn is likely to make these tasks even more difficult. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the knowledge base upon which the Brazilian government and public, as well as the international community, evaluate the policy choices the country faces in the realm of trade. It employs computable general equilibrium models of the global and Brazilian economies to simulate a range of possible trade agreements, and explores the effects of these changes on the Brazilian economy, including its sectors, workforce, and households.
Overall, this study shows that the impact of increased trade on the Brazilian economy will be very small, even from a new global agreement at the World Trade Organization or from a very ambitious free trade pact with the largest developing countries. In addition, Brazil will expose its economy to stronger effects from other global policy shocks, such as world price volatility, as it opens its markets. After a careful analysis of the benefits and costs of trade liberalization and specific trade policy choices, increased global economic engagement may still be seen as beneficial for the Brazilian economy. However, it is important in policy debates that the nature and costs of structural adjustment be taken into account and that the pattern of trade achieved serves the country’s long-term development goals.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Venezuela Is No Oil Eldorado, Despite U.S. and Russian Claims
- Including Russia on the EU Financial Blacklist Will Hurt Ordinary People, Not the KremlinCommentary
The paradox of the European Commission’s decision is that the main victims will not be those it formally targets. Major Russian businesses associated with the Putin regime have long adapted to sanctions with the help of complex schemes involving third countries, offshore companies, and nonpublic entities.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- Why Didn’t the Ukraine War Turn Russia’s Ruling Class Against Putin?Commentary
A new book by Alexandra Prokopenko looks at why the Russian ruling class became the regime’s willing servants—and how they might fare in a post-Putin world.
Vladislav Gorin
- Collateral Damage: The Frozen Foreign Assets of Middle-Class RussiansCommentary
The volume of frozen private assets might seem insignificant compared with Russia’s sovereign reserves, but these are the savings of millions of people who believed that foreign securities were a safe investment and in the institution of private property.
Yulia Starostina
- The Kremlin Has Weaponized Western Financial Checks to Punish Russian DissidentsCommentary
International compliance and anti-money laundering standards are currently formulated in such a way that the Western financial system does not differentiate between Russian political prisoners and ISIS militants.
Alexandra Prokopenko
