An official peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot by itself resolve decades of mistrust. The durability of peace will depend on healing trauma, reframing identities, diversifying narratives, and ensuring that ordinary citizens experience tangible improvements in daily life.

Western powers may soon find it hard to escape an unpalatable dilemma: either they need to invest heavily in ice-class marine capability, both military and commercial, with unclear payback prospects, or they will have to cede leadership in the Arctic to the Sino-Russian tandem.

The prospect of an open-ended military standoff between Russia and Europe raises the likelihood that Moscow might use Belarus to stage increasingly dangerous provocations. European governments should think proactively about how to create the right mix of incentives and pressure to ensure that Belarusian leaders think twice before allowing themselves to be sucked into any future military confrontation.