Western powers may soon find it hard to escape an unpalatable dilemma: either they need to invest heavily in ice-class marine capability, both military and commercial, with unclear payback prospects, or they will have to cede leadership in the Arctic to the Sino-Russian tandem.

The prospect of an open-ended military standoff between Russia and Europe raises the likelihood that Moscow might use Belarus to stage increasingly dangerous provocations. European governments should think proactively about how to create the right mix of incentives and pressure to ensure that Belarusian leaders think twice before allowing themselves to be sucked into any future military confrontation.

In today’s Russia, no one knows what tomorrow may bring. Everyone must be prepared to be arrested or imprisoned at any moment, regardless of their position and rank. The country’s elites are gradually descending into survival mode: it’s every man for himself.