Obama's Nuclear Agenda: Is Full Disarmament Possible?

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Testimony

Obama's Nuclear Agenda: Is Full Disarmament Possible?

The Obama administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review reduces the role and number of U.S. nuclear weapons, identifies nuclear terrorism as the principal threat to the United States, and works to maintain a stable strategic relationship with China.

By George Perkovich

Published on Apr 29, 2010

Source: Pacific Council Teleconference

The Obama administration has completed a new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that reduces the role and number of U.S. nuclear weapons. Those reductions are in line with the limits set out in the recently signed new START arms control treaty. The new Nuclear Posture Review identifies nuclear terrorism as the principal threat to the United States. In a teleconference discussion hosted by Pacific Council, Carnegie’s George Perkovich explored the significance of these events.

Nuclear Terrorism

Perkovich noted that nuclear terrorism is “one of the easiest problems to redress because the number of actors you have to mobilize” to secure weapons-usable materials “is relatively small.”

Reducing the Role of Nuclear Weapons

Advances in targeting and information technology have made it possible to use precision conventional weapons for missions previously assigned to nuclear weapons. “The politics are just catching up” to these military innovations, Perkovich said.

Addressing China

Perkovich said the NPR’s approach to China was perhaps its “most important” yet unsung innovation. The NPR acknowledges, albeit in “very indirect language,” that China and the United States are mutually vulnerable to each other’s nuclear weapons, much in the way the United States and Russia continue to be since the days of the Cold War.

If the strategic relationship between the two countries is to remain stable, the United States will have to convince China that it will not seek missile defenses “large and capable” enough to remove China’s ability to retaliate to an American nuclear attack, Perkovich said.

Will Iran build nuclear weapons?

Perkovich said the answer hinges on whether Iran opts for a “Japan strategy,” in which Iran retains the capability to develop nuclear weapons but stops short of doing so, or a “Pakistan strategy” in which Iran rushes to build a nuclear weapon as soon as it is technically able.

About the Author

George Perkovich

Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Senior Fellow

George Perkovich is the Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons and a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program. He works primarily on nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament issues, and is leading a study on nuclear signaling in the 21^st century.

Recent Work

Paper
How to Assess Nuclear ‘Threats’ in the Twenty-First Century
- George Perkovich
Commentary
“A House of Dynamite” Shows Why No Leader Should Have a Nuclear Trigger
- George Perkovich

Foreign Policy Nuclear Policy North America United States

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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