U.S. sanctions over Iran’s missile deal with Russia are unlikely to derail President Masoud Pezeshkian’s efforts to bring his country out of isolation, diplomats say.

Nonetheless, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compelled governments in the US and Europe to decide in some cases whether to permit significant lucrative transactions, contracted for by Western nuclear firms with Russian industry before the war began, to be completed. 

Earlier this year, the Biden administration revised its nuclear strategy, the nuclear employment guidance, which is updated approximately every four years. This time, however, the administration seems to have made some significant changes, placing greater emphasis on China given its growing nuclear capabilities, as well as directing the United States military to prepare for coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea. 

The People’s Republic of China is currently on a nuclear tear, building up its arsenal from roughly 500 warheads today to as many as 1,500 by 2035. 

The United States faces a looming crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Diplomacy has broken down, and the United States has focused mainly on strengthening its alliances with South Korea and Japan as the Kim regime grows more threatening. What options does the United States have to prevent war on the Peninsula?

Even if averting a new arms race will be extremely difficult, the next U.S. president still should try to do that by forcing the bureaucracy to consider its costs seriously.