Divide the Iranian Leadership

{
  "authors": [
    "Dmitri Trenin"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Divide the Iranian Leadership

In order to convince Iran to use its eventual nuclear weapons arsenal only for deterrence and regional power politics, the Obama administration must work to empower the moderates in the Iranian leadership.

By Dmitri Trenin

Published on Oct 12, 2010

Source: Foreign Policy

Divide the Iranian LeadershipDespite all that Barack Obama has to preoccupy himself with in Afghanistan and Iraq these days, it is Iran that is likely to be the U.S. president's most serious foreign policy-challenge in the coming months. By now it is clear that Iran is headed toward nuclear weapons -- and that's plural weapons, not just one. Iran's goal is a nuclear weapons arsenal. The only question that remains is whether this will be maintained for deterrence and regional power politics or actually used. That answer will depend on the balance of power within the Iranian leadership.

Obama essentially has two options: He can provoke the Iranian leadership, or he can seek to influence it, tipping the balance in favor of the moderates. The options mentioned in policy circles so far include striking Iran, supporting an Israeli attack, or imposing ever more stringent sanctions. None will work, however, and each will backfire -- empowering the regime's most radical elements by offering them a pretext to attack Israel or the West. The president must resist the temptation to use highly visible, but blunt instruments of power.

Instead, the Obama administration must work to isolate the religious fanatics and their allies among the Revolutionary Guards, empowering the moderates. Elements of such a strategy include: increasing economic and cultural openness toward Iran; coordinating closely with foreign partners, from Europe and Turkey to Russia and China; and aligning NATO's missile-defense plans with its erstwhile rival, Moscow. There is no guarantee, of course, that this strategy will succeed. What it does ensure is -- at the very least -- that the United States will not make matters worse by throwing a public-relations softball to Iran's radical fanatics. Iran's bomb may be inevitable; its use is still preventable.

About the Author

Dmitri Trenin

Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.

Recent Work

Commentary
Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- Dmitri Trenin
Commentary
What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West Revealed
- Dmitri Trenin

Foreign Policy Middle East Iran

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
Commentary
NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer
On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.
Tejas Bharadwaj
Commentary
Indian Airstrikes in Pakistan: May 7, 2025
On May 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. (IST), airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force hit nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). It was codenamed Operation Sindoor.
Rudra Chaudhuri
Research
Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China
This compendium brings together three essays by scholars who participated in Carnegie India's Security Studies Dialogue in 2024, each examining a different aspect of China’s policies. Drawing on their expertise and research, the authors offer fresh perspectives on key geopolitical challenges.
+1
Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, …
Commentary
The India-U.S. TRUST Initiative: Advancing Semiconductor Supply Chain Cooperation
As part of the TRUST initiative, leaders of the two countries committed to building trusted and resilient supply chains, including for semiconductors and critical minerals. India and the United States have made steady progress in this area over the years. This essay explores the takeaways from discussions on semiconductor supply chains that took place at Carnegie India’s 9th Global Technology Summit.
Konark Bhandari

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary

The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports

This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.

Vrinda Sahai

Commentary

NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer

On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.

Tejas Bharadwaj

Commentary

Indian Airstrikes in Pakistan: May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. (IST), airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force hit nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). It was codenamed Operation Sindoor.

Rudra Chaudhuri

Research

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China

This compendium brings together three essays by scholars who participated in Carnegie India's Security Studies Dialogue in 2024, each examining a different aspect of China’s policies. Drawing on their expertise and research, the authors offer fresh perspectives on key geopolitical challenges.

- +1
Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, …

Commentary

The India-U.S. TRUST Initiative: Advancing Semiconductor Supply Chain Cooperation

As part of the TRUST initiative, leaders of the two countries committed to building trusted and resilient supply chains, including for semiconductors and critical minerals. India and the United States have made steady progress in this area over the years. This essay explores the takeaways from discussions on semiconductor supply chains that took place at Carnegie India’s 9th Global Technology Summit.

Konark Bhandari