Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Security"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Terror on the Volga
The war the terrorists are waging against Russia is for real, and their threats are not empty. Sochi is probably highest on the terrorists’ hit list, and Moscow is another prime target. However, for the time being, the terrorists have focused on some of the softer targets in the south of Russia.
Published on Dec 30, 2013
On Sunday and Monday, suicide bombers struck again in Volgograd. The last time they hit the city on the Volga, last October, they managed to kill six. The grim total of the recent attacks is at least five times as high.
Add the car bombing in Pyatigorsk, where three people died on Friday.
The war the terrorists are waging against Russia is for real, and their threats are not empty. The immediate timing of the blasts is meant to spoil the nation’s New Year’s celebrations, traditionally the height of the festive season in Russia. There is also a clear link to the Winter Olympics, due to begin in Sochi on February 7.
Sochi is probably highest on the terrorists’ hit list. Moscow is another prime target. Disrupting the Games and wreaking havoc in the capital would greatly undermine Russia’s prestige, precisely what the terrorists want.
For the time being, and maybe in preparation for bigger strikes, the terrorists have focused on some of the softer targets in the south of Russia. Soft, but not unimportant. Volgograd, formerly Stalingrad, a symbol of Russia's tragedy and triumph in World War II, has been singled out by the terrorists precisely because of its status in people's minds. Their aim was to hurt Russia’s pride, as well as its people.
As the terrorists kill and maim dozens, their larger aim to terrorize so many others—including those outside Russia, hoping that they will now stay away from the Olympics.
It looks like it will be difficult and trying few weeks, but the trials will not end next February. The Sochi Games will come and go—with the level of security hopefully permitting a safe Olympics—but the war the terrorists are waging against Russia will continue. Be ready for the long haul, but eventually terror will fail.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
More Work from Carnegie India
- A Halting Turn: India’s Military TransformationCommentary
In any defense establishment, change is an ongoing process. However, despite the best of intentions, existing bureaucracies, bound by habit and years of socialization, have their limits in implementing transformative change.
Anit Mukherjee
- Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with ChinaPaper
After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.
Saheb Singh Chadha
- Managing Divergence: India’s BRICS Presidency in 2026Article
This piece argues that India’s central challenge is not managing a single flashpoint but resolving the underlying tension between expansion and institutional coherency of the BRICS grouping.
Vrinda Sahai
- India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic ChoicesArticle
This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.
Vrinda Sahai
- The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil ImportsCommentary
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
