China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy

Pei, Minxin

Book

China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy

Minxin Pei examines the sustainability of the Chinese Communist Party's strategy of pro-market economic policies under one-party rule. China is trapped in partial economic and political reforms, and because the Communist Party must retain significant economic control to ensure its political survival, gradualism will ultimately fail.

By Minxin Pei

Published on Mar 1, 2006

Source: Harvard University Press

The rise of China as a great power is one of the most important developments in the twenty-first century. But despite dramatic economic progress, China's prospects remain uncertain. In a book sure to provoke debate, Minxin Pei examines the sustainability of the Chinese Communist Party's reform strategy--pursuing pro-market economic policies under one-party rule.

Pei casts doubt on three central explanations for why China's strategy works: sustained economic development will lead to political liberalization and democratization; gradualist economic transition is a strategy superior to the "shock therapy" prescribed for the former Soviet Union; and a neo-authoritarian developmental state is essential to economic take-off. Pei argues that because the Communist Party must retain significant economic control to ensure its political survival, gradualism will ultimately fail.

The lack of democratic reforms in China has led to pervasive corruption and a breakdown in political accountability. What has emerged is a decentralized predatory state in which local party bosses have effectively privatized the state's authority. Collusive corruption is widespread and governance is deteriorating. Instead of evolving toward a full market economy, China is trapped in partial economic and political reforms.

Combining powerful insights with empirical research, China's Trapped Transition offers a provocative assessment of China's future as a great power.

This book is available from Harvard University Press.
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Minxin Pei is Senior Associate and Director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

About the Author

Minxin Pei

Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program

Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

Recent Work

In The Media
How China Can Avoid the Next Conflict
- Minxin Pei
In The Media
Small Change
- Minxin Pei

China Political Reform Democracy Economy Military

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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