Commentary
Sarah Chayes
{
"authors": [
"Sarah Chayes"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "SAP",
"programs": [
"South Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"South Asia",
"Afghanistan"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Democracy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
In Afghanistan, a Lame Duck President is Complaining and Perhaps Conspiring
Six months away from Afghanistan’s presidential election, possibilities for election rigging are beginning to arise.
By Sarah Chayes
Published on Oct 9, 2013
Source: PRI’s The World
The first sign, says Sarah Chayes, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is that President Hamid Karzai has "stuffed" the Independent Elections Commission with his supporters.
The next sign, she argues, is that many of the serious presidential contenders are Karzai-backers. So far, there is a "checkered" list of twenty-two candidates, some of whom have been charged with human right abuses.
"Even more important than the individual names on the list," says Chayes, "is the sort of 'smoke and mirrors' of the whole exercise." She believes that Karzai, who isn't running, may be orchestrating a win for his party. He may be having friendly candidates run to make the election seem democratic and contested."It's sort of like false competition," claims Chayes, similar to one multinational company producing different brands of toothpaste. "People feel like there's an actual competion among these different brands, but they all belong to the same guy."
"What I believe is going to happen is that, at an opportune moment, all but one of these pro-Karzai candidates is going to pull out and sort of throw his block of votes to the last remaining one," she says.
Chayes admits she has no evidence that the upcoming election has been fixed, just the warning signs she is picking up. On top of that, little has been done to change the system since the 2009 presidential election, which was tainted by fraud.
At the same time, President Karzai has been lashing out at the US. In an interview with the BBC this week, he said NATO is to blame for the country's current problems.
"On the security front, the entire NATO exercise was one that caused Afghanistan a lot of suffering, a lot of loss of life, and no gains, because the country is not secure," he said.
Chayes sees the rhetoric partly as an effort by Karzai to "save face" for a domestic audience. But it may have unexpected consequences for him and the country, she says, because it's the sort of attitude that will scare off the Western investment that Karzai needs.
"I still don't think much of the Afghan leadership understands just how tired the US public and goverment is with this exercise," Chayes notes, "and with what little regret the US will walk out the door and not look back!"
About the Author
Sarah Chayes
Former Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Sarah Chayes is internationally recognized for her innovative thinking on corruption and its implications. Her work explores how severe corruption can help prompt such crises as terrorism, revolutions and their violent aftermaths, and environmental degradation.
- China Financial Markets test
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
- Civic Activism in an Intensifying Climate CrisisResearch
To address the deepening climate crisis, climate activism is employing a wider variety of tactics and aiming at a broader set of goals. In response, the movement faces stronger repression and civic backlash against climate action.
Erin Jones, Richard Youngs
- Navigating Danger: Syrian Refugees in Lebanon Risk ReturningCommentary
A humanitarian crisis in Lebanon deepens, and Syrian refugees face a perilous choice: remain in a war-torn environment or return to Syria where they risk encountering significant dangers and discrimination. There are significant challenges and risks to their search for safety in Syria.
Haid Haid
- Borders Without a Nation: Syria, Outside Powers, and Open-Ended InstabilityPaper
In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.
Kheder Khaddour, Armenak Tokmajyan
- The Military and Private Business Actors in the Global South: The Politics of Market AccessResearch
The interaction of national armed forces and private business sectors offers a useful lens for viewing the politics of numerous countries of the so-called Global South. A rising trend of military political activism—often accompanied by military commercial activity—underlines the importance of drivers and outcomes in these relationships.
Yezid Sayigh, Hamza Meddeb
- Why Tunisia Lost Faith in DemocracyCommentary
For many in the society, the post-Ben Ali years were mainly about successive economic crises and political instability.
Jasmine Khelil
