Commentary
The advantage that China has over other global powers, especially America, is that its foreign policy is closely aligned with those of many of the Middle Eastern countries.
Jin Liangxiang, Maha Yahya, Hesham Alghannam
{
"authors": [
"James L. Schoff",
"Richard J. Samuels"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"Japan"
],
"topics": [
"Nuclear Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Other
Japan’s Nuclear Hedge: Beyond “Allergy” and Breakout
With the U.S. nuclear umbrella shrinking and nuclear threats in Asia becoming greater and more complex, analysts cannot dismiss a nuclear-armed Japan as a purely academic exercise.
Published on Oct 2, 2013
Source: National Bureau of Asian Research
This chapter examines the future of Japan’s hedged dependence on U.S. extended deterrence and encourages more imaginative thinking about potential outcomes and strategic implications as the second nuclear age unfolds.Main Argument
- With the U.S. nuclear umbrella shrinking and nuclear threats in Asia becoming greater and more complex, analysts cannot dismiss a nuclear-armed Japan as a purely academic exercise.
- While we do not expect a Japanese nuclear breakout in the near term, Washington’s traditional reassurances—massive numbers of weapons deployed in theater and a robust regional presence—have given way to a less convincing reliance on specific weapon systems amid a diminishing conventional military advantage.
- Enhanced bilateral dialogue has been used to strengthen the alliance, but Japan’s neighborhood is more dangerous than ever, and the many domestic constraints on Japanese nuclear breakout—cultural, political, and institutional—could become less restrictive than before.
Policy Implications
- A U.S. decision to sustain extended deterrence will require significantly more resources and attention than heretofore assigned.
- A more integrated, alliance-based approach to deterrence might therefore become attractive.
- Alternatives to Japan’s long-practiced nuclear hedge may come to have appeal in Tokyo or Washington.
- Coordinated regional action to limit North Korea’s nuclear development remains critical.
This chapter is from Strategic Asia 2013-14: Asia in the Second Nuclear Age. Read more about Strategic Asia, including information on how to order the complete book, here.
About the Authors
James L. Schoff
Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program
James L. Schoff was a senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program. His research focuses on U.S.-Japan relations and regional engagement, Japanese technology innovation, and regional trade and security dynamics.
Richard J. Samuels
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
- China’s Evolving Economic and Security Role in the Middle East
- The Geopolitics of Economic Development in the Middle EastArticle
To create an environment more conducive to cooperation and development, U.S. and Chinese efforts should seek the endorsement of neighboring countries and regional organizations. Otherwise, regional and geopolitical rivalries will remain barriers.
Abdullah Baabood
- The Gaza War and the Rest of the WorldCommentary
Scholars from Carnegie’s global network comment on how the ongoing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is affecting their areas of interest, and what the implications of this may be.
- +11
Maha Yahya, Rosa Balfour, Judy Dempsey, …
- China’s Middle Eastern MomentCommentary
In an interview, Abdullah Baabood discusses Beijing’s evolving role in the Gulf region, where its priority is stability.
Michael Young
- Why China Is Emerging as a Main Promoter of Stability in the Strait of HormuzArticle
Because of its reliance on the Gulf region for much of its oil and gas, China has a strong interest in preserving security in the region, an early example of which was its mediation of the recent Saudi Arabia-Iran reconciliation.
Abdullah Baabood
