• Research
  • Diwan
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Middle East logoCarnegie lettermark logo
PalestineSyria
{
  "authors": [
    "Jon Wolfsthal"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "NPP",
  "programs": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [],
  "topics": [
    "Nuclear Policy",
    "Arms Control"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Other

The Political and Military Vulnerability of America’s Land-Based Nuclear Missiles

The Trump administration should take time to determine whether ICBMs fit into America’s nuclear deterrent strategy, and to consider options such as reducing or even eliminating them.

Link Copied
By Jon Wolfsthal
Published on Apr 18, 2017

Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The current plan for US nuclear modernization would replace the nation’s aging Minuteman III missiles with next-generation missiles known as the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, at a cost of $100 billion or more. As part of the agreement that resulted in the Senate’s approval of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty nuclear agreement with the Russian Federation, the Obama administration agreed to a nuclear modernization plan that includes retaining and upgrading the nation’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). But from a military standpoint, these missiles are the most vulnerable and least essential components of the US nuclear arsenal. As part of its comprehensive nuclear posture review, the Trump administration should take the time to determine whether ICBMs fit into America’s nuclear deterrent strategy, and to consider options such as reducing or even eliminating them – which could be done with little risk to the overall security of the United States or its allies.

Read the full article in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

About the Author

Jon Wolfsthal

Former Nonresident Scholar, Nuclear Policy Program

Jon Wolfsthal was a nonresident scholar with the Nuclear Policy Program.

    Recent Work

  • Report
    Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security<br>With 2007 Report Card on Progress
      • +2

      George Perkovich, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Joseph Cirincione, …

  • Article
    10 Plus 10 Doesn’t Add Up

      Jon Wolfsthal

Jon Wolfsthal
Former Nonresident Scholar, Nuclear Policy Program
Jon Wolfsthal
Nuclear PolicyArms Control

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

  • Commentary
    How Tehran Is Connecting the Ukraine Invasion to the Iran Deal

    Both events also could force Washington to rethink or revive its Middle East partnerships.

      Karim Sadjadpour

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    A Ticking Time-Bomb?

    Disagreement between the United States and Iran over a revived nuclear accord may anchor volatile competition.

      George Perkovich

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    What Does It Mean that European States Have Triggered the Dispute Resolution Mechanism in the Nuclear Deal With Iran?

    A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.

      Michael Young

  • Commentary
    What Europe’s Dispute about Iran’s Nuclear Program Means

    The British, French, and German foreign ministers have formally accused Iran of breaking the terms of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a step that could lead to sanctions. Are the Europeans preparing to pull the plug?

      Jarrett Blanc

  • Commentary
    Scratching Erdogan’s Nuclear Itch

    Although Turkey is not likely to pursue a nuclear weapons program, it is expanding its nuclear industry by partnering with Russia.

      Mark Hibbs

Get more news and analysis from
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Carnegie Middle East logo, white
  • Research
  • Diwan
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.