In The Media
Lilia Shevtsova
{
"authors": [
"Lilia Shevtsova"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Military-Patriotic Mobilization and How It Will End
The worse the situation becomes in Russia, the better it looks in the eye of the people. This can be explained by mass self-deception and people’s desire to believe in a fairy tale. However, Russia is approaching a moment of truth when people will realize how serious the country’s problems are.
Published on May 20, 2014
Russia has seen nothing of the kind in the last twenty-five years. I am not talking about Putin’s stunning 82 percent approval rating. I mean the incredible optimism of the Russian public. Even those dissatisfied with their lot have suddenly experienced a rush of happiness and optimism. While the country has rolled back all its reforms, 58 percent of the respondents to a Levada Center poll believe that reforms continue (only 27 percent think otherwise). As authoritarianism gains new strength and political life becomes less transparent, 57 percent of those polled say it isn’t so, claiming that Russian political life is open and government policies are widely discussed (only 33 percent express their skepticism). The state infringes on human rights, but only 38 percent see it this way, while 48 percent consider their country democratic.
In short, the worse the situation becomes in Russia, the better it looks in the eye of the people. We are witnessing mass self-deception, people’s desire to believe in a fairy tale and a hoax. The long demoralized and splintered society suddenly consolidated around a belief that it is doing great. It is obvious that society could not resist the potent drug of military patriotism and consolidated around the flag in the face of a threat, which is in fact another imitation. But as military-patriotic mobilizations of the past suggest, this drug wears off pretty fast. When the feeling of euphoria is gone, uneasy return to reality sets in. Russia has already experienced similar mobilizations during the second Chechen War of 1999 and the Russia-Georgia War of 2008, and it took the country half a year or even less to sober up.
Russia’s current military-patriotic high is much stronger and will be harder to overcome. Nevertheless, Russia will have to do it. People will be forced to see how serious the problems the country faces are. This will be the moment of truth, which Russia is fast approaching.
About the Author
Lilia Shevtsova
Former Senior Associate, Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program, Moscow Center
Shevtsova chaired the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, dividing her time between Carnegie’s offices in Washington, DC, and Moscow. She had been with Carnegie since 1995.
- Putin Has Fought His Way Into a Corner
- How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?Commentary
Lilia Shevtsova
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Will Russia–Armenia Relations Improve Following Pashinyan’s Re-Election?Commentary
For all the menacing rhetoric, the Armenian prime minister remains a leader with whom Putin is prepared to interact: not as an ally, but as a partner, albeit a problematic one.
Alexander Atasuntsev
- The World According to Putin: No Deal on Ukraine in SightCommentary
The issue is not that the president only has selective information at his disposal, but that the decision-making process consists of one person with an unshakeable vision of how the world works.
Tatiana Stanovaya
- Who Does Azerbaijan Want to See Win Armenia’s Elections?Commentary
By fueling the arguments of both supporters and opponents of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan wants to ensure he is re-elected with a weaker mandate.
Bashir Kitachaev
- Russia’s Elite Conflict Over Internet Restrictions Does Not Herald Regime CollapseCommentary
A much-discussed disagreement over internet restrictions in Russia was never an existential threat for Putin: It was about elite groups protecting their interests.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- Is Belarus Really Set to Return to the Ukraine War?Commentary
By reminding the world that Lukashenko is a threat to NATO and Ukraine, Kyiv is trying to return the focus to why the Belarusian regime needs to be contained rather than rewarded.
Artyom Shraibman
