At a time of heightened regional uncertainty and turbulence in political relationships, the Quad remains a key platform for strategic coordination in the Indo-Pacific region. Following an international convening at Stanford University, scholars from each Quad country co-authored a report examining the role of these important powers to thwart Chinese revisionism and uphold a stable regional order. This briefing will examine how the Quad can contribute to deterring major power conflict while advancing joint security and economic initiatives ahead of the 2025 Quad Summit. How do current political shifts within member states affect the Quad’s strategic coordination in the Indo-Pacific? To what extent is Chinese revisionism reshaping regional security, trade, and diplomacy? What role can the Quad play in offering alternatives to Chinese-led infrastructure and technology projects?

Carnegie India hosted a private briefing by Arzan Tarapore on his co-authored report, “Mobilizing for a Free, Open, and Secure Indo-Pacific: A Strategic Reassessment.” The discussion was moderated by Dinakar Peri. 

DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS  

Growing challenges in the Indo-Pacific: Participants outlined three major challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. First, the region faces a revisionist China, which is rapidly increasing its power. Coupled with economic might, its military modernisation has evolved, as it possesses the world’s largest naval fleet, a rapidly growing missile arsenal, and capabilities in electronic and cyber warfare. This revisionism is also highlighted by Beijing’s growing willingness to use coercion in the region. Second, the United States, traditionally an anchor for regional stability, is becoming increasingly unreliable as a security guarantor. Third, an unpredictable and uncertain U.S. will incentivize traditional partners in the region to seek alternate policy options. They may look to increase their capacities, continue working with the U.S. and deal with its unpredictability, while simultaneously hedging by accommodating some of Beijing’s interests. This pushes countries to compromise and act as individual states rather than resist through collective action. Eroding trust in U.S. leadership and the hesitation of regional actors to militarize their foreign policy has left gaps that China continues to exploit. As the broader rules-based international order is under pressure, established norms and institutions are also weakening. Participants highlighted that there are likely flashpoints of a major war in the region including the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Himalayas; but given increasing Chinese military presence, the Taiwan conflict remains the most crucial.

Mitigating the risk of conflict in the Indo-Pacific: Participants agreed that the risk of a major conflict in the region is high, particularly emanating from a revisionist China. One of the important means to mitigate that risk is through deterrence by denial and ensuring that China sees its objectives as unattainable. Beijing is unlikely to be dissuaded by punitive actions, and a better strategy for the U.S. and its partners could be to hinder its goals through anticipatory preparedness. Deterrence by denial also requires capacity to use precise mass and the ability to fight an initial attack with large quantities of long-range precision weapons, supported by resilient launch systems and surveillance networks. Additionally, due to local advantages, Beijing would seek a rapid and decisive victory and mitigating this would require the Quad to play to U.S.’ strategic strength which is a longer and protracted war. While this might be a challenge to smaller countries, participants discussed the importance of broader mobilization and collective action in this regard, which would further undermine China’s confidence. Finally, participants highlighted that preparing now, rather than reacting later, is essential to prevent any miscalculation, understand strategic complexities, and to ultimately uphold stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Importance of Quad in the Indo-Pacific: Participants agreed on the need for strategic coordination and mobilization between like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. While this can occur through various mechanisms, the Quad remains the most significant. Broadening its focus, security must be a core feature of its cooperation, as freedom and openness in the Indo-Pacific are strongly intertwined with this. Participants discussed areas on which the Quad countries can focus. First, building industrial or production capacity is essential in the event of a protracted war. Second, countries can reinforce national resilience by sensitizing populations to geopolitical security risks and understanding their direct or indirect impact. Third, enabling foundations of military cooperation and interoperability will be essential, especially by sharing intelligence data and plans. Fourth, establishing defense consultations at the ministerial level will be important, as it represents the highest level of engagement and ensures consistency, as lower-level arrangements vary between countries. Participants recognized that while political trust and bilateral relationships between partner countries can be uncertain, cooperation amongst the Quad is critical to deterring conflict.

This summary was prepared by Swasti Sachdeva, research assistant and program coordinator, and Serene Joshua, young ambassador, with the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India.