Is President Obama's Afghanistan Strategy Working?

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In The Media

Is President Obama's Afghanistan Strategy Working?

The surge in Afghanistan is not working. The counterinsurgency strategy attempted in Marja did not succeed, and the offensive in Kandahar is likely to fail as well.

By Gilles Dorronsoro

Published on May 9, 2010

Source: The Washington Post

Is President Obama's Afghanistan Strategy Working?The surge in Afghanistan is not working. The only place where the counterinsurgency strategy has been tried so far is in Marja, where its results have been disastrous. The Taliban is still there, and the population neither supports the local government nor collaborates with U.S. forces. The Taliban has enough spies to kill people suspected of aiding the Americans, while the local Afghan government has no political capital.

The consequence is that at least a few thousand U.S. troops will stay in this marginal district to contain the Taliban when they are needed to resist the coming Taliban offensive in the north and east.

The imminent U.S. offensive in Kandahar will also fail, because the coalition cannot reform the local government. Ahmad Wali Karzai, half-brother of President Hamid Karzai, remains the local strongman, and the United States will not remove him, meaning it has no reliable partner to work with in Kandahar. Taliban forces have infiltrated that city in great numbers and are already targeting Afghans who work with the government or the Americans.

About the Author

Gilles Dorronsoro

Former Nonresident Scholar, South Asia Program

Dorronsoro’s research focuses on security and political development in Afghanistan. He was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne in Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes.

Recent Work

Paper
Waiting for the Taliban in Afghanistan
- Gilles Dorronsoro
Paper
Afghanistan: The Impossible Transition
- Gilles Dorronsoro

Foreign Policy South Asia Afghanistan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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