Source: The Diane Rehm Show

A year after the controversial June 12, 2009 presidential elections, the Iranian opposition seems to be operating out of sight. The regime, which has a monopoly on coercion in Iran, has violently crushed the opposition whenever it has taken to the streets. However, the lack of street protests may not be a bad thing for the opposition because, as Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour noted, “street protests accentuate the weakness of the opposition.” He suggested that the opposition should move beyond street protests and reach out to workers in Iran, in particular those who work in the oil industry, in order to initiate strikes. 

The recent UN sanctions are, Sadjadpour contended, “a starting point, not a finishing line.” In other words, he explained, UN sanctions are generally passed on a lowest common denominator formula because of the strategic interests of states like Russia and China. However, the hope is that these new sanctions will lead to more unilateral sanctions from European countries. “The question is, will these sanctions change the calculations of the regime in regards to their nuclear program,” said Sadjadpour, “and the past thirty years shows the regime is willing to subject its people to economic hardship rather than compromise ideologically.”

Moving forward, Sadjadpour saw three broad challenges for the Obama administration in regards to Iran:

1. Reaching a modus vivendi with a regime that derives legitimacy from its antagonism toward the United States.
2. Engaging the regime without demoralizing the opposition
3. Supporting the opposition without tainting its independence.