A Strategy for Afghanistan

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In The Media

A Strategy for Afghanistan

Considering that the international coalition will have fewer resources in Afghanistan next year, it is time to enter into a meaningful negotiation process with the Taliban.

By Gilles Dorronsoro

Published on Jun 9, 2011

Source: Politico

A Strategy for AfghanistanAs often is the case in Washington, the debate starts with the wrong facts. There are no "gains" worth mentioning in Afghanistan; except in a few districts, the COIN has been a failure. The overall picture is a stronger-armed opposition and no progress with Pakistan. Considering the coalition will have less resources next year, the only urgent problem is to enter a meaningful negotiation process with the Taliban and strike a deal to associate the Taliban to a new government.

Then, the real question is "how the withdrawal is going to impact the negotiations." If the pullout is too important, the risk is to see the Taliban deciding they just have to wait. If the withdrawal is only symbolic, the Taliban and, more importantly, the Pakistani army, which is supporting them, will think the U.S. army is still betting on a military solution. In this case, the military pressure on the coalition will quickly become unbearable. To escape this dilemma, one possible solution is to announce a relatively limited withdrawal (around 10,000 troops) and propose a cease-fire this autumn. This will show that the coalition is determined to leave and is serious about the negotiations, but not willing to exit quickly at any costs.

About the Author

Gilles Dorronsoro

Former Nonresident Scholar, South Asia Program

Dorronsoro’s research focuses on security and political development in Afghanistan. He was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne in Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes.

Recent Work

Paper
Waiting for the Taliban in Afghanistan
- Gilles Dorronsoro
Paper
Afghanistan: The Impossible Transition
- Gilles Dorronsoro

Security Military Foreign Policy South Asia Afghanistan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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