Michael Pettis
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}Source: Getty
A Deficit Driven by Excess Consumption Must Eventually Reverse
Trade deficits generated by credit-fueled consumption are unsustainable, and can be reversed by either shifts in the policies of surplus-producing countries abroad or by crippling austerity at home.
Source: Economist

About the Author
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie China
Michael Pettis is a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on China’s economy, Pettis is professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.
- What GDP Means in a Soft Budget Economy Like ChinaCommentary
- What’s New about Involution?Commentary
Michael Pettis
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- The Xi Doctrine Zeros in on “High-Quality Development” for China’s Economic FutureCommentary
In the latest Five-Year Plan, the Chinese president cements the shift to an innovation-driven economy over a consumption-driven one.
Damien Ma
- Today’s Rare Earths Conflict Echoes the 1973 Oil Crisis — But It’s Not the SameCommentary
Regulation, not embargo, allows Beijing to shape how other countries and firms adapt to its terms.
Alvin Camba
- How China’s Growth Model Determines Its Climate PerformanceCommentary
Rather than climate ambitions, compatibility with investment and exports is why China supports both green and high-emission technologies.
Mathias Larsen
- What’s New about Involution?Commentary
“Involution” is a new word for an old problem, and without a very different set of policies to rein it in, it is a problem that is likely to persist.
Michael Pettis
- The Chinese Investment Riddle: What Cities RevealCommentary
While China's investment story seems contradictory from the outside, the real answers to Beijing's high-quality growth ambitions are hiding in plain sight across the nation's cities.
Yuhan Zhang