Nuclear Nonproliferation at a Crossroads

{
  "authors": [
    "Toby Dalton"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "NPP",
  "programs": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [],
  "topics": [
    "Nuclear Policy",
    "Arms Control"
  ]
}

In The Media

Nuclear Nonproliferation at a Crossroads

Future nonproliferation diplomacy will be shaped by tension between states seeking to preserve the existing system, states desiring reform, and states that ignore or neglect the rules.

By Toby Dalton

Published on May 31, 2021

Diplomacy and the Future of World Order

About the Author

Toby Dalton

Senior Fellow and Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program

Toby Dalton is a senior fellow and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order.

Recent Work

Commentary
A Nuclear Odyssey at Sea
- Jamie Kwong, Toby Dalton
Paper
Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold
- Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton

Nuclear Policy Arms Control

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie China

Article
Can China Turn Its Small Modular Reactor Ambitions into Commercial Reality?
China has showcased its engineering prowess with small modular reactor demonstration projects. But turning these technological achievements into commercial success will be a greater challenge.
Tong Zhao
Paper
Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its Allies
The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.
Tong Zhao
Commentary
Beyond the Putin-Kim Alliance: How Can the International Community Engage China to Contain Nuclear Risks Over the Korean Peninsula?
Faced with an increase in strategic maneuvering by Moscow and Pyongyang, Beijing will not sit idly by and allow Putin and Kim to shape the security environment on its behalf.
Tong Zhao
Commentary
Missile Defense and the Strategic Relationship among the United States, Russia, and China
China views U.S. missile defense as posing a greater potential threat to China’s nuclear deterrent than other U.S. military capabilities.
Tong Zhao, Dmitry Stefanovich
Commentary
About the P5 process, RevCon 2022, AUKUS and US-China Competition From The Chinese Side
There are certainly other issues among other P5 countries, but the U.S.-China competition is so by far the most consequential great power rivalry in the international system, and it has very far-reaching geopolitical implications at and beyond the Pacific region.
Tong Zhao

More Work from Carnegie China

Article

Can China Turn Its Small Modular Reactor Ambitions into Commercial Reality?

China has showcased its engineering prowess with small modular reactor demonstration projects. But turning these technological achievements into commercial success will be a greater challenge.

Tong Zhao

The nuclear missile formation passes through Tian'anmen Square during a military parade on September 3, 2025 in Beijing, China.

Paper

Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its Allies

The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.

Tong Zhao

Commentary

Beyond the Putin-Kim Alliance: How Can the International Community Engage China to Contain Nuclear Risks Over the Korean Peninsula?

Faced with an increase in strategic maneuvering by Moscow and Pyongyang, Beijing will not sit idly by and allow Putin and Kim to shape the security environment on its behalf.

Tong Zhao

Commentary

Missile Defense and the Strategic Relationship among the United States, Russia, and China

China views U.S. missile defense as posing a greater potential threat to China’s nuclear deterrent than other U.S. military capabilities.

Tong Zhao, Dmitry Stefanovich

Commentary

About the P5 process, RevCon 2022, AUKUS and US-China Competition From The Chinese Side

There are certainly other issues among other P5 countries, but the U.S.-China competition is so by far the most consequential great power rivalry in the international system, and it has very far-reaching geopolitical implications at and beyond the Pacific region.

Tong Zhao