Commentary
In Donald Trump’s second term in office, the transatlantic relationship that helped define the postwar European project and global order appears broken. Is it time for Brussels to chart its own path?
Nathalie Tocci, Jan Techau
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Event
Can Europe Ever Trust the United States Again?
Wed, January 14th, 2026
Live Online
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term in office has put Europe on the back foot. Despite continued diplomatic efforts from national and institutional leaders, the transatlantic relationship that helped define the postwar European project appears broken.
From Vice-President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference to the December 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, the Trump administration continually reaffirms its rejection of the values that have bound both continents for decades. Amid existential challenges, Brussels must ask whether its relationship with Washington can ever be the same again—or whether it is time for Europe to chart its own path.
To explore this question, Carnegie Europe invites you to an online public discussion between Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), and Jan Techau, director of the Europe team at Eurasia Group. The discussion, moderated by Carnegie Europe Director Rosa Balfour, will be the first of a series unpacking the most pressing questions facing the EU as part of Carnegie’s “Europe Head-to-Head” project.
Read the position papers authored by Nathalie Tocci and Jan Techau below.
Can Europe Trust the United States Again?
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
Event Speakers
Rosa Balfour
Director, Carnegie Europe
Rosa Balfour is the director of Carnegie Europe. Her fields of expertise include European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy.
Jan Techau
Director, Europe Team, Eurasia Group
Techau is director with Eurasia Group's Europe team, covering Germany and European security from Berlin. Previously, he was director of Carnegie Europe.
Nathalie Tocci
Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali & Professor of Practice, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Tocci is director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, professor of practice at Johns Hopkins SAIS, and professor at the European University Institute. She has been Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell. In that capacity, she wrote the European Global Strategy and worked on its implementation.