The relationship between China and Russia has profoundly impacted both countries. During the Cold War, the two countries had a shared distaste for Western democracy, yet China’s use of force often led to tensions with Moscow. Now, it is Russia’s aggressive behavior that stresses the relationship. Although the two countries are not as close as they were during the height of the Sino-Soviet alliance, is the relationship today better at managing differences between Beijing and Moscow? Further, the friendship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is a historical anomaly given that previous leaders often mistrusted or disrespected one another. How has this impacted the relationship between China and Russia? In this discussion, Joseph Torigian will compare the Sino-Soviet relationship during the Cold War to the present-day China-Russia “no-limits” partnership.
Carnegie India hosted Joseph Torigian for a discussion on the historical and contemporary relationship between China and Russia. The discussion was moderated by Rudra Chaudhuri.
Discussion Highlights
Ideology, Personality and Relations with the West: Participants compared the relationship between China and Russia during The Cold War with today to identify the reasons which led to a breakdown of the relationship during the former period. While The Cold War was marked by divisions between the capitalist liberal West and the communist bloc, elements of ideology pulled the Chinese and the Soviets apart. Whenever Mao encountered a tactical issue, he tried to link it to deeper ideological differences with the Soviets which eventually led to a fracture in the relationship. Today, the two countries are united in their ideological beliefs against the West. In terms of personal relationships between leaders, the partnership between Putin and Xi is a historical anomaly that allows the two countries to manage the challenges in the relationship better. Putin and Xi share a similar worldview due to similarities in their background, upbringing and experience. Participants also discussed the upturn in relationship with the West between the two countries from The Cold War to the contemporary period. While the Soviet Union was a status quo power and in a state of intense economic competition with the West during The Cold War, China was seeking to address its historical aberrations as a revisionist power and frequently used force in its pursuit. Presently, Russia is dissatisfied with the international order which stems from the erosion of its core interests and is trying to change it with force. Whereas China is in fervid competition with the West but is not attempting to violently overturn the international order, rather rewrite the rules of engagement in accordance to sustain its rise and seek its rightful place as a great power.
Challenges in the Relationship: Participants identified Ukraine and Central Asia as the two key thorny areas in the Sino-Russo relationship. Although China is sympathetic towards Russia in its conflict with Ukraine and acknowledges that the West’s failure to respect Russian security interests led the Kremlin to use force, it does not recklessly support Russia. China does not expect its relations with the West to improve anytime soon, simultaneously it does not want to completely dissociate with the West owing to its strategic compulsions. Participants agreed that Xi is a cautious leader and China is not attempting to radically reshape the international order that catalyzed its meteoric rise and therefore, does not want to be perceived as overly aggressive or attempting to create a ‘post West’ international order. Since China is enmeshed in the world economic system, it is vulnerable to Western sanctions in a way that the Soviet Union never was, which indicates that it will not provide unconditional support to Russia. China’s active engagement and deepening ties with Central Asian countries could prove to be another challenge in the relationship. Russia has always considered the region to be its backyard as it was part of the erstwhile Soviet Union. However, this challenge has so far been amicably managed by both the countries. Participants debated whether this was the case owing to Russian unwillingness and limited capabilities to challenge China’s strategic interests in the region. Russian reliance on its long term strategic assets and the fervent anti-Chinese sentiments in the region could be another factor that speaks to its actions. Moreover, Russia potentially is banking on the fact that traditionally, the Central Asian states have a demonstrated history of fine balancing the outside powers.
Future of the Sino-Russo Relationship: Participants agreed that while some posit that Russia has already become or will soon become overly dependent on China, it is a mischaracterisation of their relationship. Russia has weakened and some of its strategic choices, beginning with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 may have pushed it closer to the Chinese. There has been an acceleration of this trend following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 where a China-Russia Axis is hotly debated within the security community. Despite their strategic convergence that brings Russia and China together, it is also pivotal to take cognizance of some glaring differences between the two. Both have a sense of a historical destiny and have had differences in the past which may arise again. These historical differences also make them suspicious of each other. Notwithstanding the distant possibilities of these events, participants underscored the reasons, primarily being a nuclear strike by Russia in its war with Ukraine, a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or the collapse of Russia as a major military power could cause a significant review of the relationship between the two countries. Participants also deliberated on the Chinese expectations in case of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. While China would expect Russia to provide support in the cross Strait crisis with the US, Russian response would be contingent on various factors. Some of these factors which could drive Russian engagement in the cross Strait crisis would be its economic and military capabilities, the level of engagement in Ukraine, the historical memory and its broader strategic interests.
