Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability extends from the South Caucasus through Moldova and the Western Balkans.

The war has turned these “in-between” states into the focus of a tug of war between Moscow, which draws on historical, economic, and energy ties to preserve its sway, and the European Union, which competes for influence through the promise of eventual membership of the bloc.

Three leading Carnegie scholars—Thomas de Waal, Dimitar Bechev, and Maxim Samorukov—have teamed up for a research project to analyze the current challenges faced by countries where the EU and Russia are tussling for influence. This has resulted in the paper “​Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of Instability,” as well as individual country case studies on Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Moldova.

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, discussed Russia’s different strategies in these countries, and how the EU can better counter them. Anja Wehler-Schöck, international editor of Tagesspiegel, moderated.