Azerbaijan is in a dominant position as negotiations drag on with Armenia on normalizing relations. To advance a meaningful and sustainable settlement, the West must prioritize engagement with the region.
Azerbaijan is in a dominant position as negotiations drag on with Armenia on normalizing relations. To advance a meaningful and sustainable settlement, the West must prioritize engagement with the region.
The deal would be a geopolitical game-changer.
The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.
Armenia and Azerbaijan may be nearing a bilateral peace agreement, but the threat of violence persists. A major sticking point is the Zangezur Corridor, where Baku and Moscow may pursue a deal to the detriment of Yerevan and the West.
Rapid geopolitical change is curtailing Russian power in the South Caucasus, boosting the influence of Middle Eastern countries and bookending the region’s “post-Soviet” history.
Syria, Azerbaijan, and some officials in Israel have conceptualized forced displacement as a mode of conflict management. That has consequences for the Western peacebuilding model.
Despite their bloody history and repeated recent disappointments, a long-term accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach.