Ahead of parliamentary elections due next year, anti-Russian sentiment is an increasingly potent mobilizing force in Georgian politics.

Georgia is moving toward Europe while retreating from democracy. Following the European Commission’s recommendation to grant the country EU candidate status, with many conditions attached, European leaders will meet in December to confirm whether Georgia merits this new position.

The announcement of EU candidate status is both a boon for Georgia and a geopolitical challenge, given possible retaliation from Russia.

Tbilisi is hoping to progress toward European integration while resisting genuine reform. In deliberating Georgia’s possible EU membership, Brussels faces an uncomfortable choice between geopolitical calculus and adherence to its own democratization criteria.

The prospect of further enlargement presents the EU with multiple institutional, policy, and financial dilemmas. The successful integration of Ukraine and other candidate countries will require pragmatism, reforms, and transitional arrangements.

The European Commission president’s remarks will be a guide for understanding how she might navigate upcoming turbulence.