Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette

{
  "authors": [
    "Lilia Shevtsova"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Caucasus",
    "Russia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette

Russia’s actions in the Russia-Georgia conflict proved that for the Kremlin, foreign policy is the crucial means of carrying out its domestic agenda. For the political elite, this agenda maintains the status quo. However, such a policy is unlikely to stand. Should Russia be unable to start to reform it risks collapse and repeating the end of the Soviet Union.

By Lilia Shevtsova

Published on Oct 8, 2008

Source: The World Today

The Russia-Georgia conflict has had a grave consequence for Russia- it has ended the Perestroika experiment that was begun by former President Mikhail Gorbachev. While the war had many different roots, one important factor responsible for this event is the position of the Russian ruling class. The conflict is a direct result of this group wanting to return to a traditional state in which it cannot maintain itself without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The state, based on highly centralized and personified power with strong elements of coercion, can exist only as a besieged fortress.

While this conflict has achieved this aim of maintaining a status quo and served as a unifying event for Russian citizens, it also faces a current challenge. The problem lies in Russia’s next step. Because the elite is a rentier class feeding off energy sales to the west, they have no interest in further escalation of the confrontation, as this would threaten their personal inclusion in the west and this is the new element in the old matrix. But, at the same time, they cannot abandon the anti-western means of consolidating Russia.

The country is approaching a new moment of truth when the elite discovers that the petro-economy no longer works and maintaining mobilisation at the enemy’s expense has become infinitely more difficult. It is unclear whether it will be able to start to reform the predatory state before it collapses and Russia repeats the end of the Soviet Union.

The article first appeared in The World Today magazine.

About the Author

Lilia Shevtsova

Former Senior Associate, Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program, Moscow Center

Shevtsova chaired the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, dividing her time between Carnegie’s offices in Washington, DC, and Moscow. She had been with Carnegie since 1995.

Recent Work

In The Media
Putin Has Fought His Way Into a Corner
- Lilia Shevtsova
Commentary
How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?
- Lilia Shevtsova

Foreign Policy Caucasus Russia

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
Commentary
NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer
On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.
Tejas Bharadwaj
Commentary
Indian Airstrikes in Pakistan: May 7, 2025
On May 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. (IST), airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force hit nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). It was codenamed Operation Sindoor.
Rudra Chaudhuri
Research
Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China
This compendium brings together three essays by scholars who participated in Carnegie India's Security Studies Dialogue in 2024, each examining a different aspect of China’s policies. Drawing on their expertise and research, the authors offer fresh perspectives on key geopolitical challenges.
+1
Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, …
Commentary
The India-U.S. TRUST Initiative: Advancing Semiconductor Supply Chain Cooperation
As part of the TRUST initiative, leaders of the two countries committed to building trusted and resilient supply chains, including for semiconductors and critical minerals. India and the United States have made steady progress in this area over the years. This essay explores the takeaways from discussions on semiconductor supply chains that took place at Carnegie India’s 9th Global Technology Summit.
Konark Bhandari

Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary

The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports

This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.

Vrinda Sahai

Commentary

NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer

On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.

Tejas Bharadwaj

Commentary

Indian Airstrikes in Pakistan: May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. (IST), airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force hit nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). It was codenamed Operation Sindoor.

Rudra Chaudhuri

Research

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China

This compendium brings together three essays by scholars who participated in Carnegie India's Security Studies Dialogue in 2024, each examining a different aspect of China’s policies. Drawing on their expertise and research, the authors offer fresh perspectives on key geopolitical challenges.

- +1
Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, …

Commentary

The India-U.S. TRUST Initiative: Advancing Semiconductor Supply Chain Cooperation

As part of the TRUST initiative, leaders of the two countries committed to building trusted and resilient supply chains, including for semiconductors and critical minerals. India and the United States have made steady progress in this area over the years. This essay explores the takeaways from discussions on semiconductor supply chains that took place at Carnegie India’s 9th Global Technology Summit.

Konark Bhandari