The political and security situation in the Caucasus has changed, and it would be a mistake to not ask ourselves, in a dynamic moment like this, whether there are any new opportunities to build a more promising future in the wake of a tragic past.
As the war in Ukraine has passed its second anniversary, two major elections are on the horizon. In June, the European parliamentary elections will be held across the European Union, while Americans will take to the ballot box in November to elect the next president. Both elections have the potential to affect Western support to Ukraine and thus the course of the war.
The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.
Turkey’s dependence on energy imports has an impact on the country’s economic and geopolitical orientation. Turkish leaders should devise energy policies that respond to domestic priorities, regional ambitions, and the challenges posed by climate change.
Widely viewed as the most powerful person in Georgia, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has announced a political comeback ahead of fall elections.
Armenia and Azerbaijan may be nearing a bilateral peace agreement, but the threat of violence persists. A major sticking point is the Zangezur Corridor, where Baku and Moscow may pursue a deal to the detriment of Yerevan and the West.
Rapid geopolitical change is curtailing Russian power in the South Caucasus, boosting the influence of Middle Eastern countries and bookending the region’s “post-Soviet” history.
