Understanding Iran's Turmoil

{
  "authors": [
    "Karim Sadjadpour"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "Middle East",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Understanding Iran's Turmoil

In the aftermath of Iran's disputed election the opposition has grown bolder, seeking to fundamentally change the system of government by abolishing or seriously weakening unelected leadership positions, including that of the Supreme Leader, whose authority has never been challenged before.

By Karim Sadjadpour

Published on Jun 23, 2009

Source: NPR's Fresh Air

The Guardian Council is likely to endorse Iran’s disputed presidential election results on Thursday, potentially sparking nationwide strikes as the opposition moves out of the streets and begins targeting the main arteries of the economy. The ruthless suppression of protests and the regime’s ability to prevent people from assembling has reduced the size of the crowds in Tehran and throughout Iran, but that does not mean Iran can or will return to the status quo, explains Karim Sajdadpour in an interview with NPR.

Having expelled most foreign reporters, the Iranian regime is using overwhelming force in an attempt to crush the opposition and maintain their grip on power. But the rank-and-file of the Revolutionary Guards may resist orders to crack down harder on demonstrators, potentially fracturing an important pillar of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s authority.

In the aftermath of the elections the opposition has grown bolder, seeking to fundamentally change the system of government by abolishing or seriously weakening unelected leadership positions, including that of the Supreme Leader, whose authority has never been challenged before. Before the June 12 elections, opposition supporters hoped for change within the confines of the Islamic Republic’s current system.

Mousavi himself has evolved since the elections, from an uncharismatic Revolution elder to a defiant opposition leader who enjoys a symbiotic relationship with the protesters. The size of the crowds in the street enable his defiance; his willingness to stand up to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei energizes the crowd and has earned him tremendous respect.

About the Author

Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.

Recent Work

Q&A
What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for Now
- Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright
Q&A
How Washington and Tehran Are Assessing Their Next Steps
- Aaron David Miller, David Petraeus, Karim Sadjadpour

Political Reform Foreign Policy North America United States Middle East Iran

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

Article
What Could a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement Do for U.S.-India Ties?
India and the United States are close to concluding a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement (RDPA) that will allow firms from the two countries to sell to each other’s defense establishments more easily. While this may not remedy the specific grievances both sides may have regarding larger bilateral issues, an RDPA could restore some momentum, following the trade deal announcement.
Konark Bhandari
Commentary
India Signs the Pax Silica—A Counter to Pax Sinica?
On the last day of the India AI Impact Summit, India signed Pax Silica, a U.S.-led declaration seemingly focused on semiconductors. While India’s accession to the same was not entirely unforeseen, becoming a signatory nation this quickly was not on the cards either.
Konark Bhandari
Commentary
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
Commentary
NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer
On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.
Tejas Bharadwaj
Commentary
TRUST and Tariffs
The India-U.S. relationship currently appears buffeted between three “Ts”—TRUST, Tariffs, and Trump.
Arun K. Singh

More Work from Carnegie India

Article

What Could a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement Do for U.S.-India Ties?

India and the United States are close to concluding a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement (RDPA) that will allow firms from the two countries to sell to each other’s defense establishments more easily. While this may not remedy the specific grievances both sides may have regarding larger bilateral issues, an RDPA could restore some momentum, following the trade deal announcement.

Konark Bhandari

Commentary

India Signs the Pax Silica—A Counter to Pax Sinica?

On the last day of the India AI Impact Summit, India signed Pax Silica, a U.S.-led declaration seemingly focused on semiconductors. While India’s accession to the same was not entirely unforeseen, becoming a signatory nation this quickly was not on the cards either.

Konark Bhandari

Commentary

The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports

This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.

Vrinda Sahai

Commentary

NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions Simmer

On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.

Tejas Bharadwaj

Commentary

TRUST and Tariffs

The India-U.S. relationship currently appears buffeted between three “Ts”—TRUST, Tariffs, and Trump.

Arun K. Singh