Commentary
Thomas de Waal
{
"authors": [
"Thomas de Waal"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [
"Eurasia in Transition"
],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Türkiye",
"Caucasus",
"Azerbaijan",
"Armenia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Awkward in Yerevan
The Armenians can use Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to vent some of their frustrations with Turkey—and then get back to talking again.
Published on Dec 11, 2013
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu goes on his first visit to Armenia on Thursday. He will attend a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC).
In the past, BSEC was a good forum for the two countries, which have no diplomatic relations and a closed border, to talk to each other, with the Armenian ambassador to the Istanbul-based organization serving as an informal envoy to Turkey.
More recently, even that channel has not worked. Since the failure of the Zurich protocols in October 2009, official contacts have been at their lowest since Armenia gained independence in 1991. The two foreign ministers, Davutoğlu and Eduard Nalbandian, signed the Protocols but they were never ratified by the two parliaments, with the blame for the failure generally placed more on the Turkish than the Armenian side.
It is an awkward case of "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't" for Davutoğlu. If he had turned down the opportunity to attend the meeting in Yerevan he would have been seen to be snubbing the Armenians. (His predecessor Ali Babacan visited Yerevan for a similar meeting in April 2009, but those were much more auspicious times for bilateral relations).
Now that he is coming, Davutoğlu is being greeted with scorn by the Armenian media and certain Armenian officials. The pugnacious Deputy Foreign Minister Sharvarsh Kocharyan made it clear that Davutoğlu was not welcome in Yerevan, reiterating his government's position on Armenian-Turkish normalization. “Turkey can contribute to the normalization of relations with Armenia by ratifying and putting into practice, without any preconditions, the Turkish-Armenian Protocols signed in Zurich in 2009,” Kocharyan said.
Davutoğlu will not win himself friends in Yerevan if he floats the ideas on Nagorny Karabakh he reportedly discussed in Washington last month. That would break the Armenian taboo, supported by Washington and Moscow, which is based on the notion that the Karabakh peace process and the bilateral Armenian-Turkish process must be de-linked.
That knot cannot be untangled quickly. Azerbaijan has basically asserted its veto rights over the Turks making a bilateral deal with Yerevan without at least some progress on the Karabakh conflict.
But there are plenty of smaller but important issues that the two governments need to talk about, from business relations to the status of Armenian cultural monuments in Turkey to consular services for Armenians visiting Turkey. The Armenians can use Davutoğlu's visit to vent some of their frustrations with Turkey—and then get back to talking again.
About the Author
Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
De Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
- Europolis, Where Europe Ends
- Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?Commentary
Thomas de Waal, ed.
Recent Work
Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie India
- The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil ImportsCommentary
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
- NISAR Soars While India-U.S. Tariff Tensions SimmerCommentary
On July 30, 2025, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods. While diplomatic tensions simmered on the trade front, a cosmic calm prevailed at the Sriharikota launch range. Officials from NASA and ISRO were preparing to launch an engineering marvel into space—the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), marking a significant milestone in the India-U.S. bilateral partnership.
Tejas Bharadwaj
- Indian Airstrikes in Pakistan: May 7, 2025Commentary
On May 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. (IST), airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force hit nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). It was codenamed Operation Sindoor.
Rudra Chaudhuri
- Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on ChinaResearch
This compendium brings together three essays by scholars who participated in Carnegie India's Security Studies Dialogue in 2024, each examining a different aspect of China’s policies. Drawing on their expertise and research, the authors offer fresh perspectives on key geopolitical challenges.
- +1
Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, …
- The India-U.S. TRUST Initiative: Advancing Semiconductor Supply Chain CooperationCommentary
As part of the TRUST initiative, leaders of the two countries committed to building trusted and resilient supply chains, including for semiconductors and critical minerals. India and the United States have made steady progress in this area over the years. This essay explores the takeaways from discussions on semiconductor supply chains that took place at Carnegie India’s 9th Global Technology Summit.
Konark Bhandari
