Commentary
Maksim Samorukov
{
"authors": [
"Maksim Samorukov"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Western Balkans",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"EU",
"Security"
]
}
Source: Getty Images
Ever Increasing Circles: How Bulgaria Is Straying from Russia’s Orbit
Bulgarians may still know the name of the Russian ambassador better than the frequently changing heads of their own government, but beyond the media buzz, most of Moscow’s leverage in Bulgaria has perished in the flames of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Published on Jun 18, 2025
For over a century and a half, Bulgaria has featured prominently in Russia’s Black Sea strategy. Instead of direct annexation, the country was assigned the role of a humble satellite, always ready to facilitate Russia’s access to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as ward off other powers from Russia’s southern coast. These objectives haven’t changed much in the 21st century. Joint energy projects with Bulgaria were supposed to bring Russian energy giants closer to European markets, bypassing less pliant transit states, while historical affinity with Bulgarians was leveraged to limit NATO’s presence in and around the Black Sea. The results of Russia’s efforts, however, are in many ways the opposite of those intended.
This paper is a part of the project “Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea” by Transatlantic Leadership Network. Other papers of the project are available here.
About the Author
Maksim Samorukov
Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
- Will Hungary’s New Leader Really Change EU Policy on Russia and Ukraine?
- In Odesa’s Shadows: What Is Russia’s Strategy in Moldova?Paper
Maksim Samorukov
Recent Work
Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie India
- India–Africa Strategic Partnership: Challenges, Potential, and Possible PathwaysArticle
A partnership between India, a country of subcontinental size, and Africa, a continent of fifty-four countries, may seem asymmetric until one notes that both are home to nearly the same number of people—1.4 billion. This essay spells out the existing challenges to the partnership, its optimal potential, and the possible pathways to realize it over the next quarter-century.
Rajiv Bhatia
- Emerging From the “Zombie State” of Trade Agreements: The India-EU FTACommentary
The India–EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is shaping up to be one of the most consequential trade negotiations, both economically and strategically. But, what’s in the agreement, what’s missing, and what will determine its success in the years ahead
Vrinda Sahai, Nicolas Köhler-Suzuki
- India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic ChoicesArticle
This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.
Vrinda Sahai
- India and a Changing Global Order: Foreign Policy in the Trump 2.0 EraResearch
Trump 2.0 has unsettled India’s external environment—but has not overturned its foreign policy strategy, which continues to rely on diversification, hedging, and calibrated partnerships across a fractured order.
- +6
Milan Vaishnav, ed., Sameer Lalwani, Tanvi Madan, …
- The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil ImportsCommentary
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
