The Vantage Point

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In The Media

The Vantage Point

In this paper commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, George Perkovich and Patricia Lewis identify possible nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation steps that could take the world in the mid-term to a position from which the latter steps toward abolition of nuclear weapons could be charted.

By George Perkovich and Patricia Lewis

Published on Jan 1, 2009

Source: ICNND Research Paper

A willingness by nuclear-armed states to make binding commitments to move to a Vantage Point—a position of deep reductions in nuclear weapons—from which abolition can be envisaged, mapped and navigated, would begin to restore confidence in the nuclear order. It is a necessary condition for enlisting non-nuclear-weapon states in the cooperation needed to avert crisis and strengthen the nuclear order. Moreover, constructing such a Vantage Point would in and of itself enhance global security because each of its elements would reduce the salience of nuclear weapons, the risks of nuclear war and terrorism, and the probability of proliferation, while increasing the prospects that nuclear energy can be distributed to enhance global development.

It is also a realistic approach for nuclear disarmament in that a nuclear-weapon-free world would have another set of dangers than the one we now inhabit. In eliminating nuclear weapons, and therefore reducing the likelihood of a nuclear war, we also, at the same time, wish also to reduce the likelihood of war per se. A more stable world, in which conflict resolution mechanisms can be made to work, in which the threat level against states and peoples is reduced, is going to pave the way for nuclear disarmament and war prevention. Power imbalances will have to be addressed as will other types of security assurances—ones that may indeed provide far greater reassurance than the nuclear umbrella—in which faith has been diminishing significantly since the end of the cold war.

About the Authors

George Perkovich

Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Senior Fellow

George Perkovich is the Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons and a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program. He works primarily on nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament issues, and is leading a study on nuclear signaling in the 21^st century.

Patricia Lewis

Nuclear Policy North America United States East Asia China Caucasus Russia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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