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In this paper commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, George Perkovich and Patricia Lewis identify possible nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation steps that could take the world in the mid-term to a position from which the latter steps toward abolition of nuclear weapons could be charted.
Source: ICNND Research Paper

It is also a realistic approach for nuclear disarmament in that a nuclear-weapon-free world would have another set of dangers than the one we now inhabit. In eliminating nuclear weapons, and therefore reducing the likelihood of a nuclear war, we also, at the same time, wish also to reduce the likelihood of war per se. A more stable world, in which conflict resolution mechanisms can be made to work, in which the threat level against states and peoples is reduced, is going to pave the way for nuclear disarmament and war prevention. Power imbalances will have to be addressed as will other types of security assurances—ones that may indeed provide far greater reassurance than the nuclear umbrella—in which faith has been diminishing significantly since the end of the cold war.
Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Senior Fellow
George Perkovich is the Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons and a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program. He works primarily on nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament issues, and is leading a study on nuclear signaling in the 21st century.
Patricia Lewis
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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