Iranian Dissent, Global Crackdown

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In The Media

Iranian Dissent, Global Crackdown

It remains to be seen how the Obama administration’s efforts at engagement with Iran will affect the domestic situation, as tensions grow between the opposition leadership’s calls for reform and the movement’s younger members, who are looking for a more fundamental change.

By Karim Sadjadpour

Published on Dec 21, 2009

Source: On Point

In the weeks and months that have followed the June Presidential election, the opposition movement has increasingly questioned the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. However, there remains a gap in the worldview of the leadership of the opposition, such as Mir Hussein Mossavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the young foot soldiers of the movement. Where the leadership is still dedicated to the idea of the Islamic Republic and is calling for reforms, younger opposition members are looking for a more fundamental change. Despite this difference, both groups recognize they need each other. It remains to be seen how far the opposition movement can go, given this gap between the expectations of the leadership and its younger members.

The regime has dug in its heels as the opposition has become more vehement and daring. Karim Sadjadpour suggests that “the political elites of the regime have no where to go outside of Iran and therefore will not give up power without a fight.” Ayatollah Khamenei learned from the Shah’s mistake of apologizing for past grievances, which opened the door for the Islamic revolution to overthrow the Shah in 1979. Accordingly, “Khamenei has created a zero-sum game”, notes Sadjadpour, where his regime will fight to the bitter end.

The approach of the Obama administration with regards to engagement has unsettled the regime and created dissension among the political elites over how to respond to Obama’s overtures. The administration’s efforts at engagement have demonstrated that “the problems lie in Tehran, not in Washington,” according to Sadjadpour.

About the Author

Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.

Recent Work

Q&A
Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?
- Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour
Q&A
What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for Now
- Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright

Security Political Reform Democracy Foreign Policy Nuclear Policy Middle East Iran Gulf

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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