Source: On Point

In the weeks and months that have followed the June Presidential election, the opposition movement has increasingly questioned the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. However, there remains a gap in the worldview of the leadership of the opposition, such as Mir Hussein Mossavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the young foot soldiers of the movement. Where the leadership is still dedicated to the idea of the Islamic Republic and is calling for reforms, younger opposition members are looking for a more fundamental change. Despite this difference, both groups recognize they need each other. It remains to be seen how far the opposition movement can go, given this gap between the expectations of the leadership and its younger members. 

The regime has dug in its heels as the opposition has become more vehement and daring. Karim Sadjadpour suggests that “the political elites of the regime have no where to go outside of Iran and therefore will not give up power without a fight.”  Ayatollah Khamenei learned from the Shah’s mistake of apologizing for past grievances, which opened the door for the Islamic revolution to overthrow the Shah in 1979. Accordingly, “Khamenei has created a zero-sum game”, notes Sadjadpour, where his regime will fight to the bitter end. 

The approach of the Obama administration with regards to engagement has unsettled the regime and created dissension among the political elites over how to respond to Obama’s overtures. The administration’s efforts at engagement have demonstrated that “the problems lie in Tehran, not in Washington,” according to Sadjadpour.